Week 1 – IPS Statistics

Team	Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp
Air Force	26.8	22.2	27.6	27.3	-0.5	-5.4
Akron	30.0	31.3	25.0	27.0	3.0	6.3
Alabama	30.1	14.3	25.4	23.1	7.1	-11.1
Arizona	36.6	21.3	25.6	29.1	7.5	-4.3
Arizona St.	22.8	22.7	27.8	27.9	-5.1	-5.1
Arkansas	21.9	31.2	29.6	21.2	0.7	1.6
Arkansas St.	27.0	23.8	26.8	29.9	-2.9	-3.0
Army	14.8	23.7	27.3	29.4	-14.6	-3.6
Auburn	17.3	18.0	25.2	22.4	-5.1	-7.2
Ball St.	34.9	20.5	26.7	31.4	3.5	-6.2
Baylor	28.0	29.3	33.1	28.2	-0.2	-3.8
Boise State	37.6	12.6	28.7	29.2	8.4	-16.1
Boston College	24.7	18.4	23.6	22.6	2.1	-5.2
Bowling Green	27.7	23.2	25.1	26.9	0.8	-1.9
Buffalo	30.3	28.2	26.7	28.1	2.2	1.5
BYU	34.2	21.9	24.4	27.9	6.3	-2.5
California	32.6	19.9	26.0	28.6	4.0	-6.1
Central Mich.	29.5	30.2	26.3	27.8	1.7	3.9
Cincinnati	25.9	20.1	26.7	27.0	-1.1	-6.6
Clemson	25.2	17.3	24.7	22.9	2.3	-7.4
Colorado	20.2	29.3	32.9	28.0	-7.8	-3.6
Colorado St.	25.2	30.2	27.8	26.2	-1.0	2.4
Connecticut	24.9	19.8	25.2	25.6	-0.6	-5.4
Duke	20.1	23.4	23.4	20.7	-0.6	0.0
East Caro.	23.4	21.1	26.0	28.4	-5.0	-4.9
Eastern Mich.	25.8	35.6	25.7	24.6	1.1	9.9
Fla. Atlantic	25.1	28.7	26.5	29.1	-4.0	2.2
Florida	43.6	12.9	27.9	24.2	19.5	-15.0
Florida Int’l	24.7	28.3	26.3	28.4	-3.7	2.0
Florida St.	33.4	20.2	25.5	22.1	11.3	-5.3
Fresno St.	29.6	31.1	26.0	30.3	-0.7	5.1
Georgia	31.5	24.5	25.3	21.5	10.0	-0.8
Georgia Tech	24.4	20.3	24.9	22.8	1.6	-4.6
Hawaii	24.6	28.9	27.7	29.4	-4.8	1.2
Houston	40.6	30.9	28.8	30.5	10.1	2.1
Idaho	19.6	42.8	28.5	28.1	-8.5	14.3
Illinois	28.7	26.6	28.8	23.9	4.8	-2.2
Indiana	20.5	35.3	27.7	22.8	-2.3	7.6
Iowa	30.3	13.0	25.9	26.1	4.3	-12.9
Iowa St.	25.3	35.8	31.0	29.2	-3.9	4.8
Kansas	33.4	28.8	33.0	28.0	5.4	-4.2
Kansas St	34.9	35.8	32.2	31.9	3.1	3.6
Kent St.	25.7	31.7	26.9	26.6	-0.9	4.8
Kentucky	22.6	21.5	24.0	23.3	-0.6	-2.5
La.-Lafayette	33.1	33.7	27.4	31.2	1.9	6.3
La.-Monroe	23.7	31.2	24.9	28.3	-4.6	6.3
Louisiana Tech	24.6	23.7	25.7	29.0	-4.4	-2.0
Louisville	24.7	29.8	25.9	24.2	0.4	3.9
LSU	30.9	24.2	25.5	25.0	5.9	-1.3
Marshall	20.5	27.7	29.8	25.8	-5.3	-2.1
Maryland	21.8	22.5	26.0	24.4	-2.6	-3.5
Memphis	27.2	27.2	25.4	28.1	-0.9	1.8
Miami (Fla.)	27.1	24.2	25.5	22.8	4.3	-1.3
Miami (Ohio)	18.4	32.7	25.3	24.7	-6.3	7.4
Michigan	20.3	28.9	26.9	23.1	-2.8	2.0
Michigan St.	25.1	22.1	27.2	24.6	0.5	-5.1
Middle Tenn.	22.8	24.9	24.0	29.2	-6.4	0.9
Minnesota	23.2	24.8	26.2	25.6	-2.4	-1.4
Mississippi	32.1	19.0	26.2	23.6	8.4	-7.2
Mississippi St.	15.3	24.7	23.9	21.2	-6.0	0.8
Missouri	42.2	27.2	33.3	30.0	12.2	-6.1
Navy	27.2	22.0	24.0	23.4	3.7	-2.0
NC St.	23.5	26.3	25.1	21.1	2.3	1.2
Nebraska	35.4	28.5	31.4	28.0	7.4	-2.9
Nevada	37.6	32.3	28.7	30.0	7.6	3.6
New Mexico	21.1	22.8	28.8	26.8	-5.7	-6.0
NM St.	22.2	34.1	28.7	29.4	-7.3	5.4
North Carolina	27.7	21.2	23.6	21.5	6.2	-2.4
North Texas	20.0	47.6	30.1	28.4	-8.4	17.5
Northern Ill.	24.2	18.0	25.4	27.5	-3.3	-7.4
Northwestern	24.4	20.2	25.4	26.7	-2.3	-5.2
Notre Dame	24.7	22.2	24.3	27.1	-2.4	-2.1
Ohio	24.1	27.3	25.3	26.1	-2.0	2.0
Ohio St.	27.6	13.9	29.1	22.7	4.9	-15.2
Oklahoma	51.1	24.5	34.0	28.3	22.8	-9.5
Oklahoma St.	40.8	28.1	33.8	30.5	10.3	-5.7
Oregon	41.9	28.2	27.5	27.1	14.8	0.7
Oregon St.	30.5	23.1	28.4	25.4	5.1	-5.3
Penn St.	38.9	14.4	26.2	23.5	15.4	-11.8
Pittsburgh	27.1	21.5	26.6	23.8	3.3	-5.1
Purdue	24.7	25.1	27.9	23.0	1.7	-2.8
Rice	41.3	33.3	27.8	30.5	10.8	5.5
Rutgers	29.0	18.8	24.6	25.9	3.1	-5.8
San Diego St.	19.3	37.2	26.0	25.1	-5.9	11.2
San Jose St.	18.7	21.6	27.3	30.3	-11.6	-5.7
SMU	21.3	38.2	32.5	27.3	-6.0	5.7
South Carolina	20.8	21.1	26.7	21.6	-0.8	-5.6
South Fla.	27.6	20.0	24.9	26.1	1.5	-4.9
Southern Miss.	30.6	24.1	27.2	27.6	3.0	-3.1
Stanford	26.3	27.4	27.6	24.5	1.8	-0.2
Syracuse	18.1	32.7	27.4	21.4	-3.3	5.3
TCU	33.6	11.3	28.2	26.6	7.0	-16.9
Temple	23.4	23.1	26.5	26.8	-3.4	-3.4
Tennessee	17.3	16.8	23.1	21.9	-4.6	-6.3
Texas	42.4	18.8	33.3	29.4	12.9	-14.5
Texas A&M	25.0	37.4	31.4	27.0	-2.0	6.0
Texas Tech	43.8	27.8	34.7	30.0	13.8	-6.9
Toledo	22.4	31.4	27.5	27.2	-4.7	3.9
Troy	32.8	21.3	27.0	29.7	3.1	-5.7
Tulane	16.7	34.5	29.7	28.4	-11.7	4.8
Tulsa	47.2	27.9	25.7	32.6	14.6	2.2
UAB	22.8	31.3	26.0	25.8	-3.1	5.3
UCF	16.6	24.1	27.8	27.0	-10.4	-3.7
UCLA	17.7	29.0	28.0	25.6	-7.9	1.0
UNLV	25.6	32.6	26.6	26.3	-0.8	6.0
USC	37.5	9.0	26.3	26.5	11.0	-17.3
Utah	36.9	17.2	25.3	26.3	10.6	-8.1
Utah St.	24.0	34.7	29.4	27.3	-3.3	5.3
UTEP	32.9	37.0	30.5	29.1	3.8	6.5
Vanderbilt	19.2	19.6	25.1	22.8	-3.6	-5.5
Virginia	16.1	21.7	25.0	19.4	-3.4	-3.3
Virginia Tech	22.1	16.7	24.7	23.2	-1.2	-8.0
Wake Forest	21.0	18.3	25.0	23.0	-2.0	-6.7
Washington	13.3	38.6	30.7	25.3	-12.1	7.9
Washington St.	12.7	43.8	29.4	25.5	-12.8	14.4
West Virginia	24.5	17.0	23.9	24.8	-0.3	-6.9
Western Kentucky	17.7	27.2	25.6	27.0	-9.3	1.6
Western Mich.	28.6	24.9	28.3	30.6	-2.0	-3.4
Wisconsin	27.5	26.5	27.3	24.8	2.6	-0.8
Wyoming	12.7	27.8	26.5	23.9	-11.2	1.3

Week 1 – IPS Predictions

Well, hello, to all you college football sports fans and welcome to another year of the Impact Prediction System (IPS) which attempts to the the impossible - predict what college age football players will do on any given weekend.

For those of you that aren’t familiar with the IPS, it projects the scores on each teams’ prior performances. For instance, if an offense scores 19 more points per game then its competition normally allows, then it stands to reason that they’ll score 19 more points than it’s upcoming opponents defense is average. For more details, see the ‘About the IPS’ section.

Last year, the IPS went 358-298 (54.6%) against the Vegas line. Not good enough to make money by betting (given that you have to cover the cost of betting), but still statistically relevant – and some good fun.

So, here are the prediction for Week 1 with the big caveat that the IPS must rely on last year’s data to predict this year’s results. I know, I know – players have changed, coaches have changed, …. But before you completely dismiss the predictions, last year the IPS went 22-17 in 2007 and 19-18 in 2008 against the Vegas lines. My theory is that things don’t change as much as people tend to expect.

Prediction for			Week 1			IPS	Vegas
Akron	10		Penn St.	53		-43.1	-28.5
Alabama	23		Virginia Tech	12		10.9	5.5
Army	22		Eastern Mich.	24		-1.7	-4.0
Baylor	18		Wake Forest	24		-6.5	-2.0
BYU	23		Oklahoma	52		-28.9	-21.0
Buffalo	37		UTEP	34		2.8	-7.5
Central Mich.	17		Arizona	46		-29.0	-14.0
Cincinnati	17		Rutgers	25		-7.9	-7.0
Colorado St.	18		Colorado	29		-10.6	-13.0
Connecticut	31		Ohio	14		16.6	3.5
Fla. Atlantic	16		Nebraska	44		-27.5	-22.0
Georgia	29		Oklahoma St.	40		-10.5	-6.0
Idaho	25		NM St.	37		-11.7	-3.5
Kentucky	36		Miami (Ohio)	11		24.5	15.5
La.-Monroe	4		Texas	54		-49.8	-40.0
Louisiana Tech	9		Auburn	23		-14.4	-13.5
LSU	41		Washington	13		28.6	14.0
Maryland	14		California	30		-15.3	-19.0
Miami (Fla.)	21		Florida St.	36		-14.7	-4.0
Middle Tenn.	6		Clemson	34		-27.4	-21.5
Minnesota	28		Syracuse	20		8.3	6.5
Mississippi	39		Memphis	15		23.8	17.0
Missouri	38		Illinois	29		9.1	-7.0
Navy	7		Ohio St.	34		-26.5	-20.0
Nevada	26		Notre Dame	36		-9.4	-16.0
New Mexico	23		Texas A&M	26		-2.5	-14.0
North Texas	10		Ball St.	54		-43.8	-16.0
Northern Ill.	16		Wisconsin	27		-11.1	-17.0
Oregon	29		Boise State	35		-5.9	-6.5
Rice	44		UAB	30		14.2	-5.0
San Diego St.	16		UCLA	35		-19.3	-19.0
San Jose St.	-8		USC	40		-47.8	-34.5
South Carolina	22		NC St.	23		-0.9	-3.0
Stanford	43		Washington St.	14		28.6	14.5
Toledo	14		Purdue	37		-22.8	-14.0
Troy	28		Bowling Green	23		4.6	7.5
Tulsa	50		Tulane	18		32.0	13.5
Utah St.	12		Utah	46		-33.8	-22.0
Western Kentucky	3		Tennessee	27		-24.4	-31.5
Western Mich.	23		Michigan	25		-2.7	-13.0

A couple comments:

1. Horns will come storming out of the gates and cover even the 40 point line against LaMon. BTW – I am a Longhorn fan, but that doesn’t affect the IPS calculations.

2. Most of the top team (e.g. OU, Bama, ..) that finished near the top last year carry the strength of their IPS forward. So, they are predicted to cover.

3. Looks like Ok St will cover Georgia at home.

4. Gotta love the prediction that USC will hold SJSU to -8 points. Last year,USC defense was salty, holding teams to  17 points less than they usually score. Meanwhile, SJSU offense was horrible average 12 less points per game than their opponents normally allow. So, SJSU may be better off simply punting on first down.