In particular, let’s hope it is correct in predicting in the National Championship game – as it did the first time I used it to predict the UT-USC game. In that case, it correctly predicted that the wrong team was favored outright, predicting UT would win 44-37. And, again, the IPS is suggesting that you shouldn’t buy into the media hype. Texas should rightly be favored ….

With only one game that week, not much will change. For what it is worth: Army 9, Navy 20. So Navy wins but won’t cover.

Except for that final gam, here are the Impact Rankings leading into the bowl games. Texas’ IPS numbers took a hit, but narrowly remains #1. But, maybe the Horn Frogs do have an argument as they move up to #2 after the Gators lost to Bama.

I’ll work up a full bowl season report, but for those of you that just can’t wait, the different between the H2H numbers determines the IPS predicted spread for each matchup. Don’t forget to compensate for homefield advantages in certain cases. (Right now, I’m considering USC, Florida St. and the Aggies as having a HF Adv.)

It’s hard to predict outcomes based on prior performances, if you never know whose gonna show up from week to week. Oh, assuming the teams do play up to (or down to) their prior efforts, here’s what ‘should’ happen this week:

Texas  28    Nebraska    15

Texas averages  43.0 PPG that’s 17.4 more than what their opponents give up. Nebraska allows 11.1 PPG that’s    -15.4 what their opponents normally score.    So,  Texas  is likely to score 28 points either way.  Nebraska averages 25.6 PPG that’s  1.0    more than what their opponents give up. Texas  allows 15.4 PPG that’s  -12.4 what their opponents normally score. So,    Nebraska is likely to score 13 to 16 points.  Unless you want to grant, Texas a homefield advantage, this game this one is too close to call against a Vegas line of 13.5.

Florida    21    Alabama 16   

Florida averages 36.5 PPG that’s  10.2 more than what their opponents give up. Alabama  allows 10.8 PPG that’s  -16.1 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Florida is likely to score 20 to 21 points. Alabama  averages 31.7 PPG that’s 6.4 more than what their opponents give up.   Florida allows 9.8  PPG that’s -16.0 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Alabama is likely to score 16 points either way.   Against a Vegas line of  6.0 Alabama covers, but loses.

Also interesting to see the Sooners also make a move with the 55 point MOV over the Aggies. Their defense is good enough to ranked with the big boys, but their offense is just too damn inconsistent.

For your further amusement, I’m now posting the weekly statistics by IPS Ranking. That way you can quickly tell who is the best team according to the IPS. In addition to the key statistics (Offensive Scoring, Defensive Scoring, Opponents Offense Scoring, Opponent Defensive Scoring), there is the calculated Impact factors:

Offensive Impact – the amount that the team is outscoring what their opponents normally give up.

Defensive Impact – the amount the team is holding opponents less than what they normally score.

H2H Impact – Essentially the Total Impact of the team which is function of all the aforementioned factors. The difference between 2 teams H2H is the difference in the predicted score (on a neutral field).So, you can see that the Horns are #1 in the IPS. And, if they played Florida, the IPS predicts that they would win by 4.3 points.

But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Here are the predictions for this week. Note that as opposed to last week where there were no outright upset predictions, the IPS is calling for several this week (Cal, Auburn, Northwestern, Ohio, Rutgers, Tulane).