IPS Predictions – Week 5

It was a good week for the IPS going 27-20 against the spread, raising the season total to 97-83. Not bad given all of the ‘unforeseeable’ upsets. As explained in my Week 5 statistics post, the IPS will now begin predicting games solely on this season’s performances (rather than relying on last year for more data points).

OU 38, Miami 10 – The IPS correctly predicted that Miami was overhyped and going to be exposed by VT. Meanwhile, OU is #1 in IPS defense. We’ll see if they can put that many points up, but they should cover the 6.5.

Ark 25, Aggies 46 – Yes, A&M has been playing cream-puffs, but they have been doing what they are supposed to – scoring 10 more points than those horrible teams normally give up and holding them to 6 points less than they normally score. Meanwhile, the Hog’s defense is horrible, actually letting their opponents score 5 points more than they normally do.

USC 23, Cal 24 – Despite getting trounced by Oregon, the IPS still has Cal pulling this off (given a 5 point home field advantage). I would love for it to be right.

LSU 28, Georgia 27 – LSU may not be a Top 5 team, but they still play defense. Georgia doesn’t, so this should be a close game.

Michigan 35, Michigan St 32 – Should be another close, good game. MI has the better offense and should pull this off.

Auburn 35, Tenn 33 – Chizik doing a nice job, especially on offense. IPS is calling for the outright upset.

Cincy 62, Miami (OH) -2 – Cincy is in the IPS Top 5 while Miami (OH) is dead last. Good Lord, this should be an ass-whooping.

Florida St 19, BC 30 – Florida State is good, but Boston College not getting enough respect. BC offense and defense impact numbers are both better.

GT 22 Miss St 28 – GT is overrated. Miss St is underrated. I like the IPS prediction of the bulldogs at home.

Air Force 31, Navy 20 – Not sure why Navy is favored. Air Force is better on both sides of the ball.

UNLV 33, Nevada 15 – Nobody cares about this game, but Nevada’s offense has been terrible. No way they should be favored.

Here’s the complete list:

Prediction for			Week 5			IPS	Vegas
Air Force	31		Navy	20		10.6	-3.5
Alabama	33		Kentucky	17		16.5	17.0
Arkansas	25		Texas A&M	46		-20.9	1.0
Arkansas St.	12		Iowa	33		-20.1	-21.0
Auburn	35		Tennessee	33		1.6	-2.0
Central Mich.	38		Buffalo	14		24.4	9.0
Cincinnati	62		Miami (Ohio)	-2		64.1	27.0
Clemson	39		Maryland	13		26.2	14.0
Colorado	23		West Virginia	33		-10.4	-17.0
Colorado St.	24		Idaho	31		-7.6	3.5
East Caro.	23		Marshall	24		-0.6	2.5
Florida Int’l	23		La.-Monroe	36		-12.2	-3.0
Florida St.	19		Boston College	30		-11.3	5.0
Georgia Tech	22		Mississippi St.	28		-5.8	4.5
Hawaii	29		Louisiana Tech	27		2.2	-3.5
Houston	46		UTEP	16		29.7	16.0
Kansas St	17		Iowa St.	23		-6.1	-3.0
Kent St.	7		Baylor	44		-37.8
LSU	28		Georgia	27		1.5	-2.5
Memphis	18		UCF	24		-6.4	-8.0
Michigan	35		Michigan St.	32		3.7	1.0
Mississippi	23		Vanderbilt	12		10.7	10.0
New Mexico	2		Texas Tech	47		-45.6	-36.0
NM St.	13		San Diego St.	25		-12.2	-16.5
NC St.	27		Wake Forest	20		6.3	0.0
Northwestern	32		Purdue	38		-6.0	-6.5
Ohio	22		Bowling Green	22		0.8	-2.5
Ohio St.	25		Indiana	14		10.9	16.5
Oklahoma	38		Miami (Fla.)	10		28.3	6.5
Oregon St.	13		Arizona St.	30		-16.7	-5.0
Penn St.	27		Illinois	7		20.3	6.0
Pittsburgh	35		Louisville	20		14.7	6.0
South Fla.	35		Syracuse	14		21.0	7.0
USC	23		California	24		-1.7	5.5
SMU	16		TCU	41		-24.6	-27.5
Southern Miss.	44		UAB	23		20.6
Temple	26		Eastern Mich.	21		5.6	4.5
Toledo	36		Ball St.	30		6.3	7.0
Tulane	19		Army	35		-16.1	-6.0
Tulsa	47		Rice	15		32.0	13.5
UCLA	20		Stanford	21		-1.8	-6.0
UNLV	33		Nevada	15		17.2	-4.0
Utah St.	27		BYU	47		-19.6	-24.0
Virginia	9		North Carolina	30		-20.2	-14.0
Virginia Tech	35		Duke	16		18.9	16.0
Washington	21		Notre Dame	30		-8.8	-13.5
Washington St.	8		Oregon	39		-31.2	-31.0
Western Mich.	17		Northern Ill.	28		-10.9	-6.5
Wisconsin	26		Minnesota	26		-0.1	-2.5
Wyoming	27		Fla. Atlantic	20		6.7	-3.0

IPS Statistics – Week 5

With 4 weeks in the books, most teams have played 3 games – so it’s time for the IPS to make predictions based solely on this seasons results. Admittedly, there an outrageous blow-out or huge loss can skew things, but it is still the reality of this season’s performance. So, here you go:

Team	Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp
Air Force	37.0	11.8	17.1	31.1	5.9	-5.4
Akron	22.5	29.3	24.4	21.8	0.7	4.9
Alabama	40.5	13.0	25.6	29.1	11.4	-12.6
Arizona	26.8	20.5	24.0	22.4	4.4	-3.5
Arizona St.	35.0	12.3	24.0	32.7	2.3	-11.7
Arkansas	32.0	32.3	27.6	26.9	5.1	4.7
Arkansas St.	32.3	22.7	23.3	25.6	6.7	-0.7
Army	20.0	24.3	22.8	26.9	-6.9	1.5
Auburn	45.3	24.3	25.9	26.7	18.5	-1.6
Ball St.	18.3	30.3	24.1	29.8	-11.5	6.2
Baylor	38.0	21.3	22.1	23.9	14.1	-0.8
Boise State	41.8	14.0	23.4	29.3	12.4	-9.4
Boston College	30.5	14.0	19.8	23.7	6.8	-5.8
Bowling Green	18.8	26.8	29.8	22.0	-3.3	-3.0
BYU	34.5	23.3	28.7	23.5	11.0	-5.4
Buffalo	20.0	32.8	24.5	24.7	-4.7	8.2
California	37.3	20.8	22.4	29.9	7.3	-1.7
Central Mich.	32.8	16.8	23.4	28.4	4.4	-6.6
Cincinnati	43.3	14.0	25.4	27.5	15.8	-11.4
Clemson	24.8	16.3	29.8	18.9	5.8	-13.6
Colorado	26.3	25.7	25.0	31.3	-4.9	0.7
Colorado St.	26.3	25.5	21.5	30.1	-3.9	4.0
Connecticut	28.8	15.0	24.1	24.4	4.3	-9.1
Duke	29.0	25.3	20.9	28.4	0.6	4.4
East Caro.	21.3	26.0	21.9	25.2	-3.9	4.1
Eastern Mich.	18.3	33.0	30.2	24.8	-6.5	2.8
Fla. Atlantic	14.7	38.0	31.2	18.3	-3.7	6.8
Florida	45.5	7.3	22.2	27.6	17.9	-14.9
Florida Int’l	20.0	34.7	33.8	24.4	-4.4	0.9
Florida St.	28.5	23.0	27.4	23.8	4.7	-4.4
Fresno St.	34.0	28.3	33.1	22.4	11.6	-4.9
Georgia	30.8	29.8	32.6	20.9	9.9	-2.9
Georgia Tech	27.0	21.0	21.2	23.9	3.1	-0.2
Hawaii	32.0	24.7	19.6	31.0	1.0	5.1
Houston	43.0	23.3	28.9	26.9	16.1	-5.6
Idaho	28.0	24.8	22.3	24.8	3.2	2.4
Illinois	18.0	28.0	25.6	21.6	-3.6	2.4
Indiana	28.3	22.3	24.0	28.1	0.1	-1.8
Iowa	25.0	11.5	22.2	21.9	3.1	-10.7
Iowa St.	25.5	19.0	18.4	23.9	1.7	0.6
Kansas	40.5	13.5	23.4	29.6	10.9	-9.9
Kansas St	23.5	16.0	15.9	29.6	-6.1	0.1
Kent St.	17.0	21.8	19.7	28.2	-11.2	2.1
Kentucky	26.7	22.7	26.8	24.2	2.4	-4.1
La.-Lafayette	15.5	30.0	25.8	19.0	-3.5	4.3
La.-Monroe	29.8	30.5	27.7	25.9	3.9	2.8
Louisiana Tech	25.0	27.3	28.2	28.6	-3.6	-0.8
Louisville	23.7	23.7	22.1	26.5	-2.9	1.5
LSU	28.8	15.3	22.5	22.8	5.9	-7.3
Marshall	21.3	26.5	20.6	27.6	-6.4	5.9
Maryland	23.8	38.3	26.6	26.2	-2.5	11.6
Memphis	21.3	29.3	24.2	25.5	-4.3	5.0
Miami (Fla.)	26.0	27.3	28.8	20.2	5.8	-1.4
Miami (Ohio)	11.3	41.8	27.5	20.2	-9.0	14.3
Michigan	37.5	22.8	25.6	25.0	12.5	-2.9
Michigan St.	32.8	25.8	27.9	25.2	7.6	-2.2
Middle Tenn.	28.5	25.8	22.3	29.1	-0.6	3.4
Minnesota	24.8	23.0	33.4	21.8	2.9	-10.4
Mississippi	35.7	12.0	19.1	28.2	7.5	-7.1
Mississippi St.	27.5	22.3	27.2	22.8	4.7	-4.9
Missouri	36.8	15.5	15.5	31.6	5.2	0.0
Navy	27.8	23.5	25.8	25.0	2.7	-2.3
Nebraska	39.3	7.0	23.3	26.8	12.5	-16.3
Nevada	13.7	33.7	31.5	21.1	-7.4	2.2
New Mexico	11.5	35.5	32.8	17.8	-6.3	2.8
NM St.	14.8	23.5	17.1	32.9	-18.1	6.4
North Carolina	22.5	14.3	22.1	25.0	-2.5	-7.9
NC St.	37.8	14.8	21.3	28.5	9.3	-6.5
North Texas	19.5	32.8	27.9	23.3	-3.8	4.8
Northern Ill.	30.0	22.5	27.0	29.2	0.8	-4.5
Northwestern	33.0	27.5	20.2	30.3	2.7	7.3
Notre Dame	31.5	22.3	29.1	28.1	3.4	-6.9
Ohio	24.5	24.3	22.8	25.9	-1.4	1.5
Ohio St.	28.5	11.3	26.4	25.3	3.2	-15.2
Oklahoma	40.7	4.7	26.8	26.3	14.4	-22.1
Oklahoma St.	39.0	21.3	26.0	33.7	5.3	-4.8
Oregon	29.8	20.5	34.9	21.0	8.8	-14.4
Oregon St.	26.8	23.3	27.9	23.7	3.1	-4.6
Penn St.	25.0	10.3	24.0	22.9	2.1	-13.8
Pittsburgh	37.5	20.5	24.3	27.2	10.3	-3.8
Purdue	32.5	30.3	30.7	26.3	6.3	-0.4
Rice	18.8	44.0	31.5	23.0	-4.3	12.5
Rutgers	29.3	20.5	24.6	31.2	-2.0	-4.1
San Diego St.	20.8	28.0	25.4	21.8	-1.0	2.6
San Jose St.	13.3	32.8	25.3	21.0	-7.7	7.4
South Carolina	24.5	17.5	29.7	23.6	0.9	-12.2
South Fla.	37.8	6.8	15.9	35.0	2.8	-9.2
USC	28.5	10.0	20.7	25.5	3.0	-10.7
SMU	31.0	28.7	18.8	35.4	-4.4	9.9
Southern Miss.	35.8	22.0	23.4	26.0	9.8	-1.4
Stanford	33.0	17.0	20.1	27.4	5.6	-3.1
Syracuse	26.3	27.3	23.6	24.7	1.6	3.7
TCU	33.3	15.0	19.0	28.4	4.9	-4.0
Temple	22.3	23.7	18.8	27.0	-4.6	4.8
Tennessee	31.3	18.0	26.8	21.3	10.0	-8.8
Texas	49.5	15.3	25.1	28.4	21.1	-9.9
Texas A&M	45.0	18.3	24.1	35.6	9.4	-5.8
Texas Tech	36.3	21.5	30.7	30.1	6.1	-9.2
Toledo	31.5	39.8	26.8	25.5	6.0	12.9
Troy	19.3	32.0	31.0	23.0	-3.8	1.0
Tulane	19.3	41.0	26.8	26.3	-7.0	14.3
Tulsa	34.3	17.8	20.8	29.8	4.5	-3.0
UAB	27.5	35.5	28.5	30.8	-3.3	7.0
UCF	21.0	21.5	22.1	29.7	-8.7	-0.6
UCLA	25.0	12.7	25.2	20.7	4.3	-12.5
UNLV	30.0	22.3	21.9	28.6	1.4	0.4
Utah	28.3	19.0	25.0	28.1	0.1	-6.0
Utah St.	33.3	35.7	28.3	25.1	8.3	7.4
UTEP	17.3	33.3	31.2	21.3	-4.0	2.1
Vanderbilt	23.3	13.8	21.6	29.9	-6.6	-7.9
Virginia	20.7	31.0	26.9	25.0	-4.3	4.1
Virginia Tech	30.8	16.5	31.8	18.5	12.3	-15.3
Wake Forest	26.0	18.8	28.3	22.6	3.4	-9.5
Washington	23.8	25.3	29.6	16.8	7.0	-4.3
Washington St.	17.3	32.8	31.1	20.1	-2.8	1.6
West Virginia	32.7	27.0	26.0	29.4	3.3	1.0
Western Kentucky	12.3	41.0	27.1	21.5	-9.3	13.9
Western Mich.	24.5	22.5	22.1	31.2	-6.7	0.4
Wisconsin	36.0	23.8	27.1	28.6	7.4	-3.3
Wyoming	17.3	28.5	29.3	25.3	-8.0	-0.8

IPS Predictions – Week 4

The IPS had another winning week, going 26-23 against the line, raising the annual total to 70-63. Not enough to make money betting, but interesting to think of it the other way around. Vegas might actually be making more money if they set their betting lines according to the IPS rather than their own. Not bad for a purely statistical system. And, if you added some intelligence (e.g. knowing that a starting QB was out), you might actually do better. Then again, maybe that only makes things worse.  😉

So, for what it is worth, here are the IPS Predictions for Week 4. First some comments:

Horns 51 UTEP 8 – The Horns have failed to cover 2 straight weeks, but the IPS still likes their chances to do it this week. Keep in mind the IPS does not factor in altitude, Colt’s flu, or an other excuse we might come up with.

ASU 35, Georgia 24 – Wow, the IPS couldn’t be more at odds with what Vegas is thinking.

Ark 24, Bama 47 – Roll tide.

Louisville 26, Utah 22 – The IPS non-BCS (10 points) may be too big of a ding on Utah to predict LV outright. But, they may well cover.

Miami 22, VT 31 – Miami has looked good, but VT may have enough defense to slow them down.

South FL 31, FSU 27 – IPS may be giving South FL too much credit for early wins against cream puffs. But, an FSU let down may cause this one to be closer than you think.

Texas Tech 38, Houston 37 – Should be quite a game and tell us (and the IPS) alot about these teams and their opponents.

Prediction for			Week 4			IPS	Vegas
Akron	19		Central Mich.	31		-11.8	-17.0
Arizona	18		Oregon St.	23		-5.2	2.5
Arizona St.	35		Georgia	24		10.4	-12.0
Arkansas	24		Alabama	47		-23.5	-15.5
Army	16		Iowa St.	30		-13.3	-10.0
Ball St.	4		Auburn	43		-39.3	-30.5
Boise State	29		Bowling Green	12		17.6	16.5
Buffalo	29		Temple	23		6.6	-2.5
California	37		Oregon	24		12.6	7.0
Colorado St.	18		BYU	35		-17.2	-14.5
Florida	36		Kentucky	18		18.0	23.0
Fresno St.	19		Cincinnati	52		-33.3	-14.5
Idaho	15		Northern Ill.	31		-16.4	-16.0
Illinois	13		Ohio St.	32		-18.6	-14.0
Indiana	18		Michigan	34		-16.5	-19.5
Iowa	10		Penn St.	23		-13.5	-10.0
La.-Lafayette	5		Nebraska	42		-36.9	-26.5
La.-Monroe	41		Fla. Atlantic	22		19.6	-5.0
Louisville	26		Utah	22		4.6	-11.5
LSU	26		Mississippi St.	18		8.3	14.0
Marshall	21		Memphis	30		-8.8	-3.0
Miami (Fla.)	22		Virginia Tech	31		-8.9	1.5
Miami (Ohio)	14		Kent St.	31		-17.5	-9.0
Michigan St.	26		Wisconsin	31		-4.4	-2.5
Middle Tenn.	31		North Texas	23		7.8	7.5
Minnesota	25		Northwestern	25		-0.2	-2.5
Mississippi	33		South Carolina	17		16.8	3.5
Missouri	48		Nevada	7		40.8	7.5
NM St.	19		New Mexico	21		-1.3	-9.5
North Carolina	24		Georgia Tech	20		4.1	-2.5
Notre Dame	34		Purdue	30		4.5	8.5
Ohio	7		Tennessee	37		-29.4	-20.5
Pittsburgh	24		NC St.	27		-3.3	0.0
Rutgers	35		Maryland	24		11.4	3.0
San Diego St.	13		Air Force	42		-29.1	-16.0
South Fla.	31		Florida St.	27		3.8	-14.0
Southern Miss.	17		Kansas	42		-25.0	-13.5
TCU	21		Clemson	31		-10.4	-3.0
Texas Tech	38		Houston	37		0.9	-1.0
Toledo	28		Florida Int’l	32		-3.8	0.0
Troy	17		Arkansas St.	36		-19.8	-1.0
UAB	18		Texas A&M	42		-24.6	-15.0
UCF	21		East Caro.	21		0.3	-9.5
UNLV	30		Wyoming	12		18.5	5.5
UTEP	8		Texas	51		-42.8	-34.0
Vanderbilt	39		Rice	10		29.0	8.5
Wake Forest	14		Boston College	24		-10.4	2.5
Washington	23		Stanford	30		-7.5	-7.0
Washington St.	3		USC	42		-38.4	-43.0
Western Kentucky	8		Navy	41		-33.2	-27.5

IPS Statistics – Week 4

OK, with 3 weeks in the books, I’m tempted to have the IPS rely solely on this year’s data. But there’s still the potential for some big statistical swings. For instance, some teams have only played two games. And, many others have at least one game against an FCS opponent whose statistics the IPS doesn’t track, simply estimates.

So, here are the week 4 statistics based on 3/4 of 2009 data and 1/4 of 2008 data.

Team	Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp
Air Force	37.2	13.8	17.5	32.1	5.1	-3.7
Akron	24.8	25.1	23.3	22.3	2.4	1.8
Alabama	39.3	14.8	22.4	26.4	12.9	-7.6
Arizona	26.7	17.8	22.8	23.6	3.1	-4.9
Arizona St.	38.7	12.1	22.8	33.3	5.4	-10.7
Arkansas	38.9	31.1	24.6	32.3	6.6	6.5
Arkansas St.	33.0	20.2	23.8	25.2	7.8	-3.6
Army	21.2	22.4	20.6	28.4	-7.2	1.9
Auburn	36.1	21.2	27.7	24.1	12.0	-6.5
Ball St.	19.5	21.9	20.1	30.7	-11.2	1.7
Baylor	24.3	26.5	26.2	19.3	5.0	0.3
Boise State	38.9	13.7	25.4	32.5	6.4	-11.8
Boston College	29.9	12.6	19.4	25.0	4.9	-6.8
Bowling Green	22.2	20.3	24.7	26.1	-3.9	-4.4
BYU	32.6	23.0	27.2	25.8	6.8	-4.2
Buffalo	24.3	30.5	27.6	22.0	2.3	3.0
California	44.7	15.2	21.5	32.2	12.4	-6.3
Central Mich.	28.1	19.0	23.7	26.0	2.1	-4.6
Cincinnati	42.7	14.0	22.7	26.6	16.1	-8.7
Clemson	28.5	17.1	27.5	21.6	6.9	-10.4
Colorado	24.8	26.6	25.4	29.9	-5.1	1.2
Colorado St.	26.8	22.6	18.9	31.2	-4.4	3.7
Connecticut	22.0	17.5	25.2	20.8	1.2	-7.8
Duke	21.8	27.6	25.1	22.3	-0.6	2.5
East Caro.	22.4	27.8	24.5	26.1	-3.7	3.3
Eastern Mich.	20.2	33.7	30.7	22.7	-2.6	2.9
Fla. Atlantic	13.4	39.8	29.6	18.3	-4.9	10.2
Florida	46.2	8.7	21.3	28.0	18.1	-12.6
Florida Int’l	17.0	30.7	32.8	21.3	-4.3	-2.1
Florida St.	35.1	23.8	26.1	27.2	7.9	-2.3
Fresno St.	36.4	29.0	28.0	26.0	10.4	1.0
Georgia	33.6	31.6	32.6	24.7	8.9	-1.0
Georgia Tech	27.1	24.3	25.4	25.8	1.3	-1.1
Hawaii	30.2	25.7	22.8	30.4	-0.3	2.9
Houston	47.7	23.5	24.0	31.7	15.9	-0.5
Idaho	24.4	27.7	22.9	26.2	-1.8	4.8
Illinois	27.4	26.9	26.0	25.3	2.1	0.9
Indiana	25.1	22.1	21.7	27.6	-2.5	0.4
Iowa	27.3	12.3	21.1	25.7	1.7	-8.8
Iowa St.	24.1	25.5	20.5	25.5	-1.4	5.0
Kansas	40.1	13.7	21.9	29.5	10.6	-8.2
Kansas St	20.0	23.2	22.3	26.0	-6.0	0.9
Kent St.	16.2	24.9	23.4	24.3	-8.1	1.5
Kentucky	33.0	15.5	19.9	30.8	2.3	-4.4
La.-Lafayette	23.8	24.7	20.6	24.9	-1.2	4.1
La.-Monroe	28.9	32.0	31.3	23.2	5.8	0.8
Louisiana Tech	24.9	26.4	26.0	28.3	-3.4	0.5
Louisville	27.5	22.8	24.5	25.3	2.2	-1.6
LSU	29.0	14.8	23.1	20.4	8.6	-8.2
Marshall	19.6	29.4	23.1	25.7	-6.0	6.4
Maryland	25.9	35.4	28.0	25.8	0.1	7.4
Memphis	24.0	29.3	27.8	25.8	-1.8	1.5
Miami (Fla.)	33.4	25.2	30.3	24.7	8.7	-5.1
Miami (Ohio)	11.1	42.7	31.4	19.7	-8.6	11.2
Michigan	33.6	21.7	26.0	26.4	7.2	-4.2
Michigan St.	31.5	21.8	25.1	25.1	6.4	-3.3
Middle Tenn.	25.0	26.7	26.0	29.0	-4.0	0.7
Minnesota	21.8	23.2	34.2	19.7	2.2	-11.0
Mississippi	44.4	12.3	19.5	31.4	13.0	-7.2
Mississippi St.	24.8	20.9	24.2	23.5	1.3	-3.3
Missouri	39.6	17.1	23.0	28.6	11.0	-6.0
Navy	25.0	23.5	29.2	20.1	4.9	-5.7
Nebraska	34.3	14.1	26.6	27.5	6.8	-12.5
Nevada	16.9	34.3	30.2	23.5	-6.6	4.2
New Mexico	12.5	36.2	34.0	19.6	-7.1	2.2
NM St.	15.3	27.8	21.7	28.3	-13.0	6.1
North Carolina	27.7	13.6	19.5	26.5	1.2	-6.0
NC St.	34.1	13.6	18.9	29.2	4.9	-5.3
North Texas	19.3	35.4	27.9	21.7	-2.4	7.5
Northern Ill.	28.3	18.5	27.2	29.8	-1.6	-8.6
Northwestern	33.1	23.8	19.1	31.5	1.6	4.7
Notre Dame	31.7	22.6	26.5	25.8	5.9	-3.9
Ohio	24.8	22.6	19.2	28.0	-3.2	3.4
Ohio St.	27.9	14.7	27.7	25.2	2.7	-13.0
Oklahoma	43.3	9.6	26.1	28.1	15.2	-16.5
Oklahoma St.	35.2	26.8	34.4	33.0	2.1	-7.6
Oregon	29.7	26.8	32.7	23.5	6.2	-5.9
Oregon St.	26.4	19.8	29.8	23.7	2.6	-10.0
Penn St.	32.2	8.6	21.4	26.0	6.3	-12.8
Pittsburgh	36.5	16.4	21.2	29.2	7.3	-4.8
Purdue	33.4	30.5	27.9	27.7	5.7	2.6
Rice	24.8	43.3	32.6	26.1	-1.3	10.7
Rutgers	28.0	22.0	24.7	26.8	1.2	-2.8
San Diego St.	22.1	30.8	22.1	24.6	-2.5	8.7
San Jose St.	13.2	35.9	29.2	20.1	-6.9	6.7
South Carolina	25.7	20.3	27.1	27.1	-1.4	-6.8
South Fla.	40.4	10.0	14.2	36.0	4.4	-4.2
USC	31.1	10.7	23.2	26.1	5.0	-12.4
SMU	28.6	31.1	23.8	32.1	-3.5	7.2
Southern Miss.	36.4	19.3	20.7	29.7	6.7	-1.4
Stanford	31.1	20.4	21.7	29.0	2.1	-1.3
Syracuse	20.5	29.4	28.7	18.9	1.6	0.7
TCU	40.7	16.0	19.1	32.5	8.2	-3.2
Temple	17.1	27.5	22.2	23.4	-6.3	5.3
Tennessee	27.1	16.4	26.0	21.0	6.1	-9.6
Texas	44.1	18.2	29.0	27.4	16.7	-10.8
Texas A&M	35.9	22.9	20.3	35.7	0.2	2.6
Texas Tech	40.2	21.2	27.6	33.1	7.1	-6.4
Toledo	26.9	39.9	29.5	25.0	1.8	10.3
Troy	19.9	30.6	31.2	21.2	-1.3	-0.6
Tulane	10.2	42.8	29.5	24.3	-14.2	13.2
Tulsa	32.1	24.0	21.0	30.9	1.2	3.0
UAB	28.4	29.3	23.0	33.7	-5.3	6.3
UCF	21.6	22.8	25.0	28.5	-6.8	-2.2
UCLA	23.2	16.8	24.1	22.4	0.8	-7.3
UNLV	29.6	22.9	23.8	26.9	2.7	-0.9
Utah	30.0	19.8	21.4	32.5	-2.5	-1.6
Utah St.	23.6	36.1	32.5	21.3	2.3	3.5
UTEP	23.7	26.5	27.0	23.7	0.0	-0.5
Vanderbilt	19.0	14.4	23.2	23.0	-4.0	-8.8
Virginia	19.5	28.7	29.5	23.1	-3.6	-0.8
Virginia Tech	28.5	18.9	30.1	19.4	9.1	-11.2
Wake Forest	25.3	16.6	23.0	26.1	-0.8	-6.5
Washington	23.6	26.4	28.5	17.8	5.8	-2.1
Washington St.	18.9	37.0	31.3	24.2	-5.3	5.7
West Virginia	30.6	24.5	24.9	28.8	1.9	-0.4
Western Kentucky	11.2	38.3	28.0	22.0	-10.8	10.3
Western Mich.	25.7	26.2	25.4	28.4	-2.7	0.8
Wisconsin	33.4	22.9	26.8	27.4	5.9	-3.9
Wyoming	12.9	28.7	27.3	26.4	-13.4	1.4

IPS Predictions – Week 3

Well, the IPS did better in Week 2, going 25-20 against the spread and raising the season total to 44-40. Not bad given only one week of data and having to rely 50% on last year’s results. Now with 2 weeks of data, we’ll go 2/3rd on this year and 1/3rd on last year.

1. Horns 41, Tech 24 – Well, the Horns just missed covering 2 weeks in a row. This week IPS and Vegas agree that it should be a 16.5 spread. Too close for IPS to call the line.

2. Cincy 36, Oregon St 20 – Cincy’s IPS numbers are looking strong. Not sure why Oregon St is favored. IPS says wrong team favored.

3. UConn 19, Baylor 19 – IPS says this is a pick’em game. I’m hoping Baylor pulls it out. The Big 12 needs all the help it can get.

4. Florida St 16, BYU 28 – BYU makes another statement that they are BCS championship contenders.

5. Georgia 22, Ark 40 – Vegas has this as a pick’em game. But, IPS say the Hogs will take it.

6. Georgia Tech 32, Miami 35 – Should be a great game.

7. Michigan St 26, Notre Dame 28 – If Domers aren’t careful, last week’s loss will catch them again.

8. Neb 28, VT 23 – Another important game for the Big 12. IPS thinks Neb will win it outright.

9. Rice 15, OSU 52 – No chance that a second Houston team beats OSU.

10. USC 39, WA 16 – With a component still based on last season, the IPS doesn’t give WA much of a chance. Still, I expect Barkley to have a freshman like performance at some point in the season.

11. Tenn 14, FL 43 – Florida’s IPS numbers are #1. No chance for Tenn.

12.  Utah St 12, Aggies 44 – The dream is alive for one more week. Aggies will steam-roll a horrible Utah St team.

So, here is the complete list of predictions:

Prediction for			Week 3			IPS	Vegas
Air Force	40		New Mexico	10		30.3	17.5
Arizona	14		Iowa	20		-5.9	-6.0
Ball St.	17		Army	18		-1.3	-8.0
Boise State	27		Fresno St.	21		5.4	10.0
Boston College	30		Clemson	21		9.1	-7.0
Bowling Green	34		Marshall	17		16.3	3.0
Buffalo	25		UCF	29		-3.3	-4.0
California	34		Minnesota	16		17.4	14.0
Cincinnati	36		Oregon St.	20		16.0	-1.5
Connecticut	19		Baylor	19		-0.2	-10.5
Duke	11		Kansas	38		-27.2	-19.0
East Caro.	6		North Carolina	37		-30.5	-7.0
Eastern Mich.	13		Michigan	41		-28.0	-22.5
Fla. Atlantic	4		South Carolina	42		-38.2	-21.0
Florida Int’l	8		Rutgers	43		-34.9	-15.0
Florida St.	16		BYU	28		-11.6	-7.0
Georgia	22		Arkansas	40		-17.9	0.0
Georgia Tech	32		Miami (Fla.)	35		-3.4	-4.0
Hawaii	19		UNLV	30		-11.8	-6.5
Indiana	20		Akron	24		-3.8	-4.5
Iowa St.	21		Kent St.	19		1.8	2.5
Kansas St	11		UCLA	26		-14.3	-11.0
La.-Lafayette	13		LSU	38		-24.9	-26.0
La.-Monroe	14		Arizona St.	46		-31.9	-17.5
Louisville	13		Kentucky	27		-14.4	-10.0
Miami (Ohio)	13		Western Mich.	32		-19.4	-17.5
Michigan St.	26		Notre Dame	28		-2.1	-11.0
Middle Tenn.	22		Maryland	32		-10.1	-6.0
Mississippi St.	17		Vanderbilt	27		-9.7	-8.0
Navy	15		Pittsburgh	43		-27.8	-7.0
Nebraska	29		Virginia Tech	23		5.4	-3.5
Nevada	12		Colorado St.	26		-14.3	3.0
North Texas	8		Alabama	46		-38.8
Northern Ill.	23		Purdue	34		-11.9	-13.0
Northwestern	32		Syracuse	18		13.7	4.0
Ohio St.	43		Toledo	19		24.7	21.0
Rice	15		Oklahoma St.	52		-37.2	-31.0
San Diego St.	27		Idaho	28		-1.2	3.5
San Jose St.	7		Stanford	38		-31.6	-18.0
USC	39		Washington	16		23.4	21.0
SMU	33		Washington St.	28		5.6	6.5
Temple	-2		Penn St.	47		-48.8	-29.5
Tennessee	14		Florida	43		-29.1	-28.5
Texas Tech	24		Texas	41		-16.8	-16.5
Tulsa	15		Oklahoma	48		-33.1	-15.5
UAB	33		Troy	27		5.6	-7.0
Utah	18		Oregon	33		-14.7	-4.0
Utah St.	12		Texas A&M	44		-32.0	-17.0
UTEP	21		NM St.	17		4.0	13.5
Virginia	10		Southern Miss.	32		-22.1	-14.5
West Virginia	20		Auburn	31		-11.7	-6.5
Wyoming	18		Colorado	31		-12.8	-7.5

IPS Statistics – Week 3

This week’s IPS data calculated with 2/3rd weighting to the 1st two games of the year and 1/3rd weighting on last season.

Team	Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp
Air Force	37.3	14.1	20.2	27.2	10.0	-6.1
Akron	26.0	20.8	22.0	24.0	2.0	-1.2
Alabama	34.7	17.4	25.8	28.4	6.4	-8.4
Arizona	29.9	14.8	18.2	30.0	-0.1	-3.4
Arizona St.	40.9	9.6	16.9	34.6	6.4	-7.4
Arkansas	39.3	17.1	17.5	32.3	7.0	-0.5
Arkansas St.	32.3	20.6	27.3	24.6	7.7	-6.7
Army	20.3	24.2	23.9	26.0	-5.7	0.3
Auburn	34.4	18.3	24.4	28.3	6.1	-6.1
Ball St.	20.3	21.2	21.1	29.9	-9.6	0.1
Baylor	25.3	23.8	26.0	23.1	2.3	-2.3
Boise State	34.9	6.9	17.2	33.9	1.0	-10.4
Boston College	37.6	8.5	15.9	25.8	11.7	-7.4
Bowling Green	26.2	21.4	22.4	28.3	-2.1	-1.0
BYU	34.1	12.6	23.6	26.8	7.3	-11.0
Buffalo	26.8	33.1	28.2	23.9	2.9	4.8
California	47.9	13.3	21.0	36.7	11.2	-7.7
Central Mich.	21.5	25.4	29.4	18.4	3.1	-4.0
Cincinnati	47.6	12.7	22.7	30.6	17.0	-10.0
Clemson	29.7	20.4	26.9	23.5	6.3	-6.5
Colorado	25.1	35.4	33.0	31.0	-5.9	2.5
Colorado St.	24.1	23.4	22.3	34.2	-10.1	1.1
Connecticut	19.3	15.9	24.9	20.0	-0.7	-9.0
Duke	23.7	22.1	19.3	27.7	-4.0	2.8
East Caro.	24.1	26.7	23.8	28.8	-4.6	2.9
Eastern Mich.	21.3	29.9	28.6	22.7	-1.5	1.3
Fla. Atlantic	10.4	42.2	37.8	13.7	-3.3	4.4
Florida	53.9	7.3	16.5	35.2	18.7	-9.2
Florida Int’l	17.6	36.1	33.4	22.1	-4.6	2.7
Florida St.	28.8	22.4	25.0	31.3	-2.5	-2.6
Fresno St.	37.2	21.7	22.8	31.2	6.0	-1.1
Georgia	27.5	28.5	25.6	23.7	3.8	2.9
Georgia Tech	30.5	21.4	22.8	27.6	2.9	-1.4
Hawaii	29.2	23.0	18.6	35.3	-6.1	4.4
Houston	46.9	24.3	23.3	32.0	14.9	1.0
Idaho	21.2	30.3	24.8	24.9	-3.7	5.4
Illinois	27.6	26.9	24.1	25.4	2.1	2.8
Indiana	20.8	22.4	17.4	29.2	-8.4	5.0
Iowa	27.4	10.7	18.6	30.0	-2.5	-8.0
Iowa St.	20.8	29.3	22.8	25.5	-4.8	6.4
Kansas	38.8	12.9	18.8	31.5	7.3	-5.9
Kansas St	23.6	23.3	24.4	28.9	-5.3	-1.1
Kent St.	16.9	21.9	27.5	22.7	-5.8	-5.6
Kentucky	35.5	7.2	8.0	37.8	-2.2	-0.8
La.-Lafayette	30.7	22.6	19.0	28.7	2.0	3.6
La.-Monroe	33.9	30.1	28.8	27.1	6.8	1.3
Louisiana Tech	17.2	30.9	32.7	23.3	-6.1	-1.8
Louisville	28.2	16.6	16.3	33.3	-5.1	0.3
LSU	28.3	18.7	28.3	21.2	7.1	-9.6
Marshall	20.5	35.9	26.4	28.6	-8.1	9.5
Maryland	24.3	36.5	31.0	24.1	0.2	5.5
Memphis	18.4	34.4	31.0	22.5	-4.1	3.4
Miami (Fla.)	34.4	30.7	26.2	23.3	11.1	4.6
Miami (Ohio)	6.1	40.9	33.6	9.6	-3.4	7.3
Michigan	29.8	23.3	24.8	23.0	6.7	-1.5
Michigan St.	32.0	18.0	18.7	28.5	3.5	-0.7
Middle Tenn.	22.6	25.3	23.3	29.7	-7.1	2.0
Minnesota	22.1	19.3	27.4	20.4	1.7	-8.1
Mississippi	40.7	15.7	18.1	33.2	7.5	-2.4
Mississippi St.	28.1	26.9	26.1	25.9	2.2	0.8
Missouri	35.4	18.7	28.6	25.8	9.6	-9.9
Navy	28.7	22.3	20.2	26.8	1.9	2.2
Nebraska	40.8	13.5	23.1	32.0	8.8	-9.6
Nevada	12.5	34.1	32.6	22.7	-10.1	1.5
New Mexico	12.4	35.9	36.8	14.8	-2.4	-0.8
NM St.	16.4	24.4	20.7	30.4	-14.1	3.6
North Carolina	26.6	12.4	17.2	24.5	2.1	-4.8
NC St.	30.5	13.4	19.5	27.0	3.5	-6.1
North Texas	23.3	29.5	22.2	25.5	-2.1	7.3
Northern Ill.	28.4	17.7	22.6	30.3	-1.9	-5.0
Northwestern	32.8	19.4	18.6	30.5	2.3	0.8
Notre Dame	31.2	20.1	19.6	27.5	3.7	0.5
Ohio	23.7	26.8	22.3	20.2	3.5	4.5
Ohio St.	24.5	19.6	31.9	18.1	6.5	-12.2
Oklahoma	42.7	12.8	26.5	24.7	18.0	-13.7
Oklahoma St.	33.3	27.7	36.4	27.3	5.9	-8.7
Oregon	29.3	27.7	35.0	21.9	7.4	-7.3
Oregon St.	29.2	17.0	23.1	25.4	3.7	-6.1
Penn St.	32.6	9.5	21.2	21.5	11.1	-11.8
Pittsburgh	39.7	17.2	21.0	32.4	7.3	-3.9
Purdue	37.6	31.4	31.1	31.8	5.7	0.2
Rice	25.1	44.1	37.6	23.8	1.3	6.5
Rutgers	29.7	24.3	31.5	24.3	5.4	-7.3
San Diego St.	22.8	29.7	21.2	25.8	-3.1	8.6
San Jose St.	11.9	33.9	31.3	18.3	-6.4	2.6
South Carolina	21.6	21.7	28.7	19.7	1.9	-7.0
South Fla.	34.2	13.3	15.5	37.7	-3.5	-2.1
USC	37.2	9.0	19.3	29.7	7.5	-10.3
SMU	29.1	31.4	27.5	31.6	-2.5	3.9
Southern Miss.	36.2	14.4	20.7	30.2	6.0	-6.4
Stanford	27.4	21.5	22.2	27.8	-0.4	-0.7
Syracuse	15.0	27.9	26.1	15.0	0.1	1.8
TCU	31.2	13.1	18.7	27.5	3.7	-5.6
Temple	23.8	25.7	16.5	34.2	-10.4	9.2
Tennessee	31.8	14.3	19.7	28.5	3.3	-5.4
Texas	47.5	16.3	30.6	30.1	17.3	-14.3
Texas A&M	35.7	16.5	15.8	37.3	-1.7	0.7
Texas Tech	45.6	16.9	21.1	39.1	6.5	-4.1
Toledo	35.8	40.5	33.0	33.4	2.4	7.5
Troy	17.6	36.1	37.2	18.2	-0.6	-1.1
Tulane	10.9	41.8	34.7	16.0	-5.1	7.1
Tulsa	42.7	17.0	13.9	40.2	2.5	3.1
UAB	33.3	30.1	25.3	34.4	-1.2	4.8
UCF	21.2	24.7	26.1	24.8	-3.6	-1.4
UCLA	23.2	19.3	30.5	21.5	1.7	-11.2
UNLV	28.2	19.5	22.2	26.1	2.1	-2.7
Utah	32.0	16.1	16.9	33.8	-1.8	-0.9
Utah St.	19.3	34.9	29.5	19.4	-0.1	5.4
UTEP	19.0	31.3	32.3	23.2	-4.2	-1.0
Vanderbilt	24.4	14.2	21.2	25.6	-1.2	-7.0
Virginia	14.7	25.9	22.2	23.8	-9.1	3.7
Virginia Tech	32.7	20.2	27.4	27.4	5.3	-7.2
Wake Forest	22.0	19.8	25.7	20.8	1.2	-5.9
Washington	26.1	30.9	26.6	21.8	4.3	4.3
Washington St.	15.2	40.3	29.6	21.3	-6.1	10.6
West Virginia	30.8	19.0	20.0	30.7	0.1	-1.0
Western Kentucky	12.6	41.7	34.0	16.7	-4.1	7.7
Western Mich.	18.2	26.3	27.9	22.4	-4.2	-1.6
Wisconsin	29.8	25.8	32.9	19.8	10.0	-7.1
Wyoming	17.2	30.3	29.3	25.6	-8.4	0.9

IPS – Week 2 – Predictions

Well, the IPS got off to a slow start going 19-20 against the Vegas lines in Week 1. As I said, it is limited to last years’ data – so it can’t account for significant coaches and player changes. I checked and it was pretty much 50-50 across the board (e.g. home vs. away, favorite vs. dawg, ….) Only significant difference was in non-BCS to cover the spread over BCS teams, where the IPS went 2-4. But, the IPS already hickies the non-BCS teams for 10 points, so it’s hard to imagine giving them much more of a disadvantage.

This week the IPS has one week’s worth of games to go on, so hopefully it’s accuracy will improve. Still, it only really has the score to go on – since the impact factor against opponents is zero (with only one opponent). So, the data is still weighted 50 % with last year.

Prediction for			Week 2			IPS	Vegas
Air Force	29		Minnesota	22		7.3	-4.0
Arkansas St.	21		Nebraska	36		-14.7	-23.5
Bowling Green	15		Missouri	39		-23.3	-17.5
BYU	32		Tulane	13		19.1	17.5
Central Mich.	7		Michigan St.	38		-31.4	-14.5
Clemson	22		Georgia Tech	24		-2.5	-4.5
Colorado	35		Toledo	18		16.8	3.0
Duke	22		Army	14		7.8	-2.5
East Caro.	12		West Virginia	31		-19.0	-6.5
Eastern Mich.	10		Northwestern	42		-31.9	-18.0
Florida Int’l	5		Alabama	33		-28.3	-34.0
Fresno St.	24		Wisconsin	31		-6.2	-9.0
Hawaii	30		Washington St.	21		8.8	2.0
Houston	27		Oklahoma St.	36		-9.2	-15.5
Idaho	21		Washington	28		-6.4	-20.0
Iowa	26		Iowa St.	19		7.4	7.0
Kansas	43		UTEP	16		26.2	10.5
Kansas St	33		La.-Lafayette	29		4.1	7.0
Kent St.	7		Boston College	36		-28.3	-21.0
Louisiana Tech	20		Navy	31		-11.1	-7.5
Marshall	15		Virginia Tech	32		-17.4	-20.0
Memphis	25		Middle Tenn.	27		-2.4	-1.0
Miami (Ohio)	2		Boise State	39		-37.7	-36.0
Mississippi St.	18		Auburn	22		-4.9	-14.0
North Carolina	25		Connecticut	20		5.0	4.0
Notre Dame	22		Michigan	19		2.7	3.5
Ohio	27		North Texas	22		5.3	3.0
Oregon St.	31		UNLV	18		12.9	7.0
Pittsburgh	32		Buffalo	15		17.0	11.5
Purdue	29		Oregon	32		-3.0	-11.5
Rice	21		Texas Tech	52		-31.1	-26.5
South Carolina	16		Georgia	20		-3.8	-7.5
South Fla.	45		Western Kentucky	5		39.9	24.0
USC	30		Ohio St.	17		13.0	6.5
SMU	26		UAB	33		-6.9	-12.0
Stanford	24		Wake Forest	22		2.6	-2.5
Syracuse	9		Penn St.	39		-30.5	-28.0
TCU	15		Virginia	11		4.0	11.0
Texas	45		Wyoming	10		35.7	33.5
Troy	7		Florida	49		-42.2	-37.0
Tulsa	38		New Mexico	17		21.0	17.5
UCF	12		Southern Miss.	34		-21.7	-15.0
UCLA	13		Tennessee	32		-18.9	-8.0
Utah	38		San Jose St.	10		28.6	13.5
Vanderbilt	24		LSU	23		1.1	-14.5
Western Mich.	16		Indiana	28		-12.0	-1.0

Comments:

Horns 45, WY 10 – Horns just missed covering when their 3rd string defense gave up a couple late scores. But, the IPS has them covering a big spread again. Seems like Brown is more willing to let GG run the 2nd team with an intent to score, so I expect UT will do better at covering spreads, than they have in the past.

USC 30, tOSU 17 – Not surprising that tOSU isn’t getting much IPS love after that lackluster victory.

ND 22, MI 19 – This game will be billed as much bigger than it really is. Both teams are better than last year, but last year they were awful.

AF 29, Minn 22 – The IPS numbers may be overly influenced by AF’s 72-0 romp in the first week, so the upset may be too much. But, AF may well cover.

Vandy 24, LSU 23 – Similar story here. Vandy romped 45-0, while LSU struggled against a WA team that was horrible last year. So, not sure about the upset, but Vandy may cover.

IPS – Week 2 Statistics

This week the IPS has one week’s worth of games to go on. With only one opponent, the impact factor against opponents is zero. For instance, the Horns scored 59 points against ULM who is now giving up 59 points per game. So, the UT’s offense impact factor is 59–59 = 0.

But at least we know (for the time being) that Texas is averaging 59 points per game. So, we average that fact in with the IPS numbers from last year weighted at 50 %  to come up with this week’s predictions.

Team	Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp
Air Force	49.4	11.1	13.8	13.7	-0.3	-2.7
Akron	18.5	31.2	28.0	17.0	1.5	3.1
Alabama	32.1	19.2	24.7	28.5	3.5	-5.6
Arizona	27.8	13.7	15.8	24.0	3.8	-2.1
Arizona St.	36.4	12.9	13.9	14.0	-2.5	-2.6
Arkansas	35.0	20.6	14.8	10.6	0.3	0.8
Arkansas St.	44.0	11.9	13.4	14.9	-1.4	-1.5
Army	20.9	18.9	20.6	28.2	-7.3	-1.8
Auburn	27.2	15.5	19.1	29.7	-2.5	-3.6
Ball St.	22.5	20.3	23.4	20.7	1.8	-3.1
Baylor	26.0	25.2	27.1	26.1	-0.1	-1.9
Boise State	28.3	10.3	18.4	24.1	4.2	-8.1
Boston College	39.4	9.2	11.8	11.3	1.1	-2.6
Bowling Green	29.3	18.6	19.6	29.0	0.4	-1.0
Buffalo	26.6	22.6	21.9	25.6	1.1	0.7
BYU	24.1	17.5	18.7	20.9	3.2	-1.2
California	42.3	16.5	19.5	40.3	2.0	-3.1
Central Mich.	17.8	24.6	22.6	16.9	0.9	2.0
Cincinnati	36.4	17.6	20.9	37.0	-0.6	-3.3
Clemson	31.1	15.7	19.3	29.9	1.1	-3.7
Colorado	21.6	23.2	25.0	25.5	-3.9	-1.8
Colorado St.	21.1	26.6	25.4	21.6	-0.5	1.2
Connecticut	24.0	17.9	20.6	24.3	-0.3	-2.7
Duke	18.0	23.7	11.7	10.4	-0.3	0.0
East Caro.	26.2	22.6	13.0	14.2	-2.5	-2.4
Eastern Mich.	19.9	31.3	26.3	19.3	0.6	5.0
Fla. Atlantic	14.0	38.9	37.8	16.0	-2.0	1.1
Florida	52.8	8.0	13.9	12.1	9.7	-7.5
Florida Int’l	12.3	14.2	13.2	14.2	-1.8	1.0
Florida St.	33.7	29.1	31.8	28.1	5.6	-2.7
Fresno St.	40.3	15.6	13.0	15.2	-0.3	2.6
Georgia	20.7	24.3	24.7	15.7	5.0	-0.4
Georgia Tech	30.7	18.7	12.4	11.4	0.8	-2.3
Hawaii	24.8	24.5	13.9	14.7	-2.4	0.6
Houston	47.8	19.0	14.4	15.3	5.0	1.1
Idaho	20.3	24.4	17.2	24.5	-4.3	7.2
Illinois	18.8	31.8	32.9	16.4	2.4	-1.1
Indiana	19.8	24.2	13.9	11.4	-1.1	3.8
Iowa	23.7	14.5	12.9	13.0	2.1	-6.4
Iowa St.	29.7	26.4	15.5	14.6	-2.0	2.4
Kansas	41.2	15.9	16.5	14.0	2.7	-2.1
Kansas St	28.0	26.4	16.1	15.9	1.5	1.8
Kent St.	21.8	15.9	13.5	13.3	-0.4	2.4
Kentucky	32.3	10.8	12.0	32.6	-0.3	-1.3
La.-Lafayette	37.5	26.4	13.7	15.6	1.0	3.1
La.-Monroe	21.8	45.1	41.9	24.1	-2.3	3.2
Louisiana Tech	18.8	30.4	31.4	21.0	-2.2	-1.0
Louisville	27.3	19.9	12.9	12.1	0.2	2.0
LSU	31.0	23.6	24.3	28.0	3.0	-0.7
Marshall	25.8	27.9	14.9	12.9	-2.6	-1.0
Maryland	17.4	37.3	39.0	18.7	-1.3	-1.8
Memphis	20.6	36.1	35.2	21.0	-0.5	0.9
Miami (Fla.)	32.5	29.1	29.7	30.4	2.1	-0.6
Miami (Ohio)	9.2	37.4	33.6	12.4	-3.2	3.7
Michigan	25.6	18.0	16.9	27.0	-1.4	1.0
Michigan St.	34.5	12.6	13.6	12.3	0.2	-2.6
Middle Tenn.	18.4	31.0	30.5	21.6	-3.2	0.4
Minnesota	23.1	22.4	23.1	24.3	-1.2	-0.7
Mississippi	38.5	16.5	20.1	34.3	4.2	-3.6
Mississippi St.	30.1	15.9	12.0	10.6	-3.0	0.4
Missouri	39.6	18.1	21.1	33.5	6.1	-3.0
Navy	27.1	26.5	27.5	25.2	1.9	-1.0
NC St.	13.2	16.7	16.1	12.1	1.2	0.6
Nebraska	42.2	15.8	17.2	38.5	3.7	-1.5
Nevada	18.8	33.7	31.8	15.0	3.8	1.8
New Mexico	13.5	31.9	34.9	16.4	-2.8	-3.0
NM St.	14.1	27.6	24.9	17.7	-3.6	2.7
North Carolina	33.8	13.6	11.8	10.8	3.1	-1.2
North Texas	20.0	28.8	20.0	24.2	-4.2	8.8
Northern Ill.	22.1	23.0	26.7	23.7	-1.7	-3.7
Northwestern	35.7	17.1	12.7	13.3	-1.1	-2.6
Notre Dame	29.8	11.1	12.1	31.0	-1.2	-1.0
Ohio	20.0	25.2	24.2	21.1	-1.0	1.0
Ohio St.	29.3	20.5	28.1	26.8	2.5	-7.6
Oklahoma	32.1	19.3	24.0	20.7	11.4	-4.8
Oklahoma St.	32.4	19.1	21.9	27.3	5.1	-2.9
Oregon	25.0	23.6	23.2	17.5	7.4	0.4
Oregon St.	32.3	15.1	14.2	12.7	2.6	-2.6
Penn St.	35.0	10.7	16.6	27.3	7.7	-5.9
Pittsburgh	32.5	12.3	13.3	11.9	1.7	-2.5
Purdue	38.3	28.1	29.4	37.5	0.8	-1.4
Rice	32.7	38.7	35.9	27.2	5.4	2.7
Rutgers	22.0	32.9	35.8	20.5	1.5	-2.9
San Diego St.	16.6	35.1	29.5	19.6	-2.9	5.6
San Jose St.	10.8	38.8	41.7	16.7	-5.8	-2.9
SMU	26.2	30.6	16.3	13.6	-3.0	2.8
South Carolina	13.9	12.1	14.9	14.3	-0.4	-2.8
South Fla.	33.8	13.5	12.5	13.1	0.8	-2.5
Southern Miss.	41.3	12.1	13.6	13.8	1.5	-1.6
Stanford	32.6	20.2	20.3	31.7	0.9	-0.1
Syracuse	19.0	27.9	25.2	20.7	-1.6	2.6
TCU	16.8	5.7	14.1	13.3	3.5	-8.4
Temple	23.7	25.1	13.3	13.4	-1.7	-1.7
Tennessee	40.2	11.9	15.1	42.4	-2.3	-3.2
Texas	50.7	19.4	26.7	44.2	6.5	-7.3
Texas A&M	33.0	21.7	18.7	34.0	-1.0	3.0
Texas Tech	40.9	20.4	17.4	15.0	6.9	-3.5
Toledo	26.7	41.7	39.8	29.1	-2.4	1.9
Troy	23.4	26.2	29.0	21.8	1.6	-2.8
Tulane	14.8	35.8	33.3	20.7	-5.8	2.4
Tulsa	42.1	20.5	19.3	34.8	7.3	1.1
UAB	33.4	27.7	25.0	34.9	-1.5	2.7
UCF	22.3	24.1	13.9	13.5	-5.2	-1.8
UCLA	25.3	21.5	21.0	29.3	-3.9	0.5
UNLV	31.8	17.8	13.3	13.2	-0.4	3.0
USC	46.8	6.0	14.6	41.3	5.5	-8.6
Utah	36.0	17.1	21.1	30.7	5.3	-4.0
Utah St.	20.5	34.9	32.2	22.1	-1.6	2.6
UTEP	25.0	30.0	26.7	23.0	1.9	3.3
Vanderbilt	32.1	9.8	12.5	11.4	-1.8	-2.7
Virginia	15.0	23.9	12.5	9.7	-1.7	-1.7
Virginia Tech	23.0	25.4	29.3	23.6	-0.6	-4.0
Wake Forest	21.0	21.2	24.5	22.0	-1.0	-3.4
Washington	18.1	34.8	30.9	24.2	-6.0	3.9
Washington St.	12.8	41.4	34.2	19.2	-6.4	7.2
West Virginia	28.8	18.5	11.9	12.4	-0.1	-3.4
Western Kentucky	12.3	45.1	44.3	17.0	-4.7	0.8
Western Mich.	17.8	28.0	29.6	18.8	-1.0	-1.7
Wisconsin	27.7	23.3	23.7	26.4	1.3	-0.4
Wyoming	20.8	24.9	13.3	11.9	-5.6	0.6