IPS Predictions – Week 14

Well, a second losing week in a row (18-24) drops the IPS to a mere 51.1% ATS for the year. But, you got to admit, it has been a strange year. For instance A&M beats Tech, Tech pummels OU, OU pummels Tech, ….

It’s hard to predict outcomes based on prior performances, if you never know whose gonna show up from week to week. Oh, assuming the teams do play up to (or down to) their prior efforts, here’s what ‘should’ happen this week:

Texas  28    Nebraska    15

Texas averages  43.0 PPG that’s 17.4 more than what their opponents give up. Nebraska allows 11.1 PPG that’s    -15.4 what their opponents normally score.    So,  Texas  is likely to score 28 points either way.  Nebraska averages 25.6 PPG that’s  1.0    more than what their opponents give up. Texas  allows 15.4 PPG that’s  -12.4 what their opponents normally score. So,    Nebraska is likely to score 13 to 16 points.  Unless you want to grant, Texas a homefield advantage, this game this one is too close to call against a Vegas line of 13.5.

Florida    21    Alabama 16   

Florida averages 36.5 PPG that’s  10.2 more than what their opponents give up. Alabama  allows 10.8 PPG that’s  -16.1 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Florida is likely to score 20 to 21 points. Alabama  averages 31.7 PPG that’s 6.4 more than what their opponents give up.   Florida allows 9.8  PPG that’s -16.0 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Alabama is likely to score 16 points either way.   Against a Vegas line of  6.0 Alabama covers, but loses.

Prediction for      Week 14     IPS Vegas
Arizona 23   USC 28   -5.7 -7.5
Arkansas St. 36   Western Kentucky 18   18.2 6.5
California 31   Washington 24   7.4 6.5
Cincinnati 29   Pittsburgh 29   0.4 0.0
Fla. Atlantic 35   Florida Int’l 33   2.1 0.0
Fresno St. 27   Illinois 27   -0.5 -1.0
NM St. 0   Boise State 50   -50.2 -46.5
Oregon St. 25   Oregon 37   -12.0 -9.5
San Jose St. 10   Louisiana Tech 32   -21.8 -18.5
South Fla. 23   Connecticut 30   -6.9 -7.0
West Virginia 18   Rutgers 24   -6.6 2.5
Wisconsin 37   Hawaii 16   21.2 11.5
Ohio 19   Central Mich. 30   -10.8 -12.0
Houston 39   East Caro. 29   10.4 1.0
Florida 21   Alabama 16   4.7 6.0
Texas 28   Nebraska 15   13.2 13.5
Georgia Tech 28   Clemson 31   -2.1 1.0
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