IPS Predictions – Week 14

November 30, 2009

Well, a second losing week in a row (18-24) drops the IPS to a mere 51.1% ATS for the year. But, you got to admit, it has been a strange year. For instance A&M beats Tech, Tech pummels OU, OU pummels Tech, ….

It’s hard to predict outcomes based on prior performances, if you never know whose gonna show up from week to week. Oh, assuming the teams do play up to (or down to) their prior efforts, here’s what ‘should’ happen this week:

Texas  28    Nebraska    15

Texas averages  43.0 PPG that’s 17.4 more than what their opponents give up. Nebraska allows 11.1 PPG that’s    -15.4 what their opponents normally score.    So,  Texas  is likely to score 28 points either way.  Nebraska averages 25.6 PPG that’s  1.0    more than what their opponents give up. Texas  allows 15.4 PPG that’s  -12.4 what their opponents normally score. So,    Nebraska is likely to score 13 to 16 points.  Unless you want to grant, Texas a homefield advantage, this game this one is too close to call against a Vegas line of 13.5.

Florida    21    Alabama 16   

Florida averages 36.5 PPG that’s  10.2 more than what their opponents give up. Alabama  allows 10.8 PPG that’s  -16.1 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Florida is likely to score 20 to 21 points. Alabama  averages 31.7 PPG that’s 6.4 more than what their opponents give up.   Florida allows 9.8  PPG that’s -16.0 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Alabama is likely to score 16 points either way.   Against a Vegas line of  6.0 Alabama covers, but loses.

Prediction for      Week 14     IPS Vegas
Arizona 23   USC 28   -5.7 -7.5
Arkansas St. 36   Western Kentucky 18   18.2 6.5
California 31   Washington 24   7.4 6.5
Cincinnati 29   Pittsburgh 29   0.4 0.0
Fla. Atlantic 35   Florida Int’l 33   2.1 0.0
Fresno St. 27   Illinois 27   -0.5 -1.0
NM St. 0   Boise State 50   -50.2 -46.5
Oregon St. 25   Oregon 37   -12.0 -9.5
San Jose St. 10   Louisiana Tech 32   -21.8 -18.5
South Fla. 23   Connecticut 30   -6.9 -7.0
West Virginia 18   Rutgers 24   -6.6 2.5
Wisconsin 37   Hawaii 16   21.2 11.5
Ohio 19   Central Mich. 30   -10.8 -12.0
Houston 39   East Caro. 29   10.4 1.0
Florida 21   Alabama 16   4.7 6.0
Texas 28   Nebraska 15   13.2 13.5
Georgia Tech 28   Clemson 31   -2.1 1.0

IPS Rankings – Week 14

November 30, 2009
    Off Def OppO OppD OImp DImp H2H
1 Texas 43.0 15.4 27.8 25.6 17.4 -12.4 28.7
2 TCU 40.7 12.4 23.8 27.1 13.6 -11.4 26.6
3 Florida 36.5 9.8 25.8 26.3 10.2 -16.0 26.4
4 Boise State 44.3 18.6 26.6 29.8 14.6 -8.0 24.2
5 Alabama 31.7 10.8 27.0 25.3 6.4 -16.1 21.7
6 Oklahoma 31.1 13.5 29.1 24.2 6.8 -15.6 20.0
7 Cincinnati 39.4 18.6 24.2 25.9 13.5 -5.6 19.9
8 Virginia Tech 31.4 15.8 26.6 22.3 9.1 -10.8 17.8
9 Ohio St. 29.3 12.2 25.4 25.0 4.3 -13.3 17.3
10 Penn St. 29.7 11.8 23.8 25.2 4.5 -12.0 17.2
11 Oregon 37.7 22.7 27.9 24.5 13.2 -5.2 16.7
12 Nebraska 25.6 11.1 26.5 24.6 1.0 -15.4 15.5
13 Texas Tech 36.7 21.8 27.3 26.5 10.1 -5.6 15.3
14 Houston 44.9 28.0 25.5 29.5 15.4 2.5 14.9
15 Pittsburgh 32.2 17.7 25.2 25.2 7.0 -7.5 14.5
16 Central Mich. 34.3 17.8 24.1 28.1 6.1 -6.2 14.4
17 Clemson 31.8 19.5 27.1 25.4 6.3 -7.6 13.1
18 Arkansas 37.3 25.8 27.2 24.4 12.9 -1.5 13.0
19 BYU 34.8 21.7 25.6 26.5 8.2 -3.9 12.6
20 Nevada 40.6 27.2 26.7 28.7 11.9 0.5 12.4
21 Air Force 28.3 15.3 23.8 26.3 1.9 -8.5 11.7
22 Tennessee 30.6 21.0 26.2 23.1 7.4 -5.2 11.1
23 LSU 25.5 16.0 27.3 24.2 1.3 -11.3 11.1
24 Georgia Tech 35.0 24.1 25.1 25.0 10.0 -1.0 10.9
25 Miami (Fla.) 31.7 22.3 26.5 23.4 8.3 -4.2 10.9
26 Mississippi 30.3 18.6 24.5 26.2 4.1 -5.9 10.8
27 Stanford 36.2 26.2 25.7 25.5 10.7 0.4 10.1
28 Oregon St. 32.4 22.2 25.6 26.5 5.9 -3.4 9.7
29 Oklahoma St. 30.2 21.8 28.5 26.8 3.3 -6.7 9.2
30 Rutgers 28.1 16.8 23.0 27.4 0.7 -6.2 9.1
31 Utah 29.3 19.7 25.4 26.7 2.5 -5.7 8.9
32 Connecticut 32.4 24.8 25.4 23.4 9.0 -0.5 8.5
33 Iowa 23.1 15.5 25.4 23.8 -0.7 -9.9 8.4
34 Wisconsin 31.1 23.6 25.9 24.7 6.4 -2.3 8.1
35 USC 27.6 20.4 26.4 24.9 2.7 -6.0 7.9
36 Auburn 32.9 26.9 26.7 23.4 9.5 0.2 7.6
37 California 31.0 22.9 24.9 26.3 4.7 -2.0 7.4
38 Arizona 30.5 23.7 26.0 24.9 5.5 -2.3 7.3
39 North Carolina 24.3 16.9 25.9 26.7 -2.3 -9.0 7.0
40 Boston College 25.8 19.4 25.9 24.6 1.1 -6.4 6.9
41 Northern Ill. 30.8 21.2 24.0 30.0 0.8 -2.8 6.6
42 Fresno St. 32.6 25.6 27.6 28.4 4.2 -1.9 6.6
43 Missouri 30.3 24.6 26.4 24.8 5.5 -1.8 6.5
44 West Virginia 26.8 20.7 25.9 25.1 1.8 -5.2 6.5
45 Southern Miss. 33.0 24.5 24.4 28.7 4.3 0.1 6.3
46 Navy 28.3 21.3 25.4 27.0 1.3 -4.1 6.2
47 Notre Dame 30.1 25.9 28.9 25.4 4.6 -3.0 5.9
48 Temple 30.3 21.7 21.3 27.3 2.9 0.3 5.6
49 Middle Tenn. 31.2 23.0 25.1 30.8 0.4 -2.1 5.3
50 Michigan St. 29.6 25.1 25.8 24.4 5.2 -0.8 5.2
51 South Fla. 26.4 20.5 24.6 27.1 -0.7 -4.2 4.7
52 UCF 26.3 20.7 26.7 28.7 -2.4 -6.1 4.7
53 East Caro. 26.9 21.3 25.0 27.3 -0.4 -3.8 4.5
54 Kentucky 27.2 22.8 24.5 24.3 2.9 -1.6 4.4
55 Troy 33.1 28.6 27.3 28.8 4.3 1.3 3.8
56 South Carolina 21.8 20.4 28.2 23.5 -1.8 -7.8 3.7
57 Ohio 26.7 21.4 23.9 27.1 -0.5 -2.5 3.6
58 Georgia 27.7 26.4 27.3 22.6 5.1 -0.8 3.6
59 Kansas 29.4 28.4 27.7 23.8 5.6 0.7 3.0
60 Texas A&M 33.9 32.7 28.2 25.2 8.7 4.5 2.8
61 Mississippi St. 25.6 26.8 30.0 22.3 3.3 -3.3 2.7
62 Michigan 29.5 27.5 24.9 25.4 4.1 2.6 1.7
63 Florida St. 29.8 30.8 28.0 22.9 7.0 2.7 1.6
64 Bowling Green 27.3 26.2 26.5 25.9 1.4 -0.3 1.4
65 UCLA 21.3 21.3 27.6 25.1 -3.7 -6.3 1.3
66 Arizona St. 22.3 21.1 26.5 26.5 -4.1 -5.4 1.3
67 Louisiana Tech 26.8 26.3 28.4 27.4 -0.6 -2.1 1.0
68 Tulsa 29.3 27.3 26.8 29.4 -0.2 0.5 0.6
69 Wake Forest 26.3 26.3 27.3 26.6 -0.3 -1.0 0.4
70 Purdue 27.8 29.1 28.3 25.1 2.7 0.8 0.3
71 Wyoming 16.9 27.3 26.9 26.2 -9.3 0.3 0.0
72 Buffalo 24.1 23.8 24.8 25.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2
73 Northwestern 25.2 23.3 22.7 27.1 -2.0 0.6 -0.4
74 Kansas St 23.0 23.3 24.7 25.9 -2.9 -1.4 -0.9
75 NC St. 30.3 31.2 24.4 25.2 5.2 6.8 -1.2
76 Minnesota 21.6 24.6 25.8 22.7 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5
77 Iowa St. 21.1 22.6 23.8 24.7 -3.6 -1.2 -1.9
78 Washington 24.6 28.2 27.9 24.9 -0.2 0.2 -2.0
79 Arkansas St. 22.6 23.6 24.3 27.9 -5.3 -0.7 -2.8
80 SMU 27.9 29.1 25.6 29.8 -1.8 3.5 -3.2
81 La.-Monroe 25.6 27.3 25.9 29.2 -3.6 1.5 -3.4
82 Baylor 20.8 27.3 28.4 22.9 -2.1 -1.2 -3.7
83 Idaho 31.8 35.5 26.9 27.7 4.1 8.6 -4.1
84 Marshall 21.8 24.9 25.6 27.8 -6.0 -0.6 -4.2
85 Duke 25.2 28.3 24.1 26.7 -1.6 4.3 -4.5
86 Virginia 19.3 26.3 27.9 23.5 -4.2 -1.6 -4.8
87 Illinois 21.6 28.1 27.0 24.0 -2.4 1.1 -4.9
88 Utah St. 29.1 34.0 27.9 28.0 1.1 6.1 -5.0
89 Colorado 22.3 28.8 27.6 24.6 -2.4 1.2 -5.1
90 Syracuse 21.2 27.9 25.9 22.7 -1.5 2.1 -5.1
91 UAB 27.8 32.3 27.5 28.9 -1.1 4.8 -5.2
92 UTEP 29.8 33.5 26.3 29.5 0.3 7.2 -5.3
93 Western Mich. 24.7 27.5 23.6 28.6 -3.9 3.9 -5.3
94 Kent St. 19.3 22.4 21.9 27.4 -8.2 0.5 -5.9
95 Louisville 18.1 26.3 27.5 23.0 -4.9 -1.2 -5.9
96 Indiana 23.5 29.5 24.3 24.3 -0.8 5.2 -6.0
97 Hawaii 23.8 27.7 25.6 30.1 -6.2 2.1 -6.1
98 Vanderbilt 16.3 23.3 25.5 24.1 -7.8 -2.2 -6.3
99 UNLV 24.8 32.4 26.6 25.6 -0.8 5.8 -7.1
100 Colorado St. 21.7 29.8 26.7 27.0 -5.4 3.1 -8.3
101 San Diego St. 23.3 30.5 24.1 26.7 -3.3 6.4 -8.5
102 Fla. Atlantic 27.4 34.9 24.9 27.3 0.0 10.0 -8.8
103 Toledo 29.7 37.7 25.1 26.8 2.9 12.6 -8.8
104 Army 16.5 22.4 21.7 27.7 -11.2 0.6 -8.9
105 Maryland 21.3 31.3 26.8 24.8 -3.5 4.4 -8.9
106 Akron 19.3 28.8 24.6 25.0 -5.7 4.2 -9.7
107 La.-Lafayette 22.2 30.3 24.6 28.2 -6.0 5.7 -9.9
108 Wyoming 16.9 27.3 26.9 26.2 -9.3 0.3 -10.0
109 Ball St. 19.2 28.2 25.6 27.9 -8.7 2.5 -10.1
110 North Texas 26.6 35.6 25.0 27.3 -0.7 10.6 -10.2
111 Memphis 21.8 34.8 28.6 26.1 -4.3 6.2 -11.7
112 Florida Int’l 23.1 36.0 28.0 25.9 -2.8 8.0 -11.9
113 Miami (Ohio) 15.6 34.2 29.1 23.8 -8.2 5.1 -15.9
114 New Mexico 16.3 35.9 27.6 25.1 -8.8 8.3 -18.4
115 San Jose St. 13.2 32.6 29.0 27.6 -14.4 3.7 -18.8
116 Tulane 16.1 36.7 26.6 27.4 -11.3 10.0 -21.0
117 NM St. 11.8 30.8 25.7 29.9 -18.1 5.1 -21.0
118 Eastern Mich. 16.4 38.3 26.3 25.3 -8.9 11.9 -21.3
119 Rice 18.3 43.1 28.4 26.4 -8.2 14.7 -23.9
120 Washington St. 12.0 38.5 28.8 24.3 -12.3 9.7 -24.2