Well, a second losing week in a row (18-24) drops the IPS to a mere 51.1% ATS for the year. But, you got to admit, it has been a strange year. For instance A&M beats Tech, Tech pummels OU, OU pummels Tech, ….
It’s hard to predict outcomes based on prior performances, if you never know whose gonna show up from week to week. Oh, assuming the teams do play up to (or down to) their prior efforts, here’s what ‘should’ happen this week:
Texas 28 Nebraska 15
Texas averages 43.0 PPG that’s 17.4 more than what their opponents give up. Nebraska allows 11.1 PPG that’s -15.4 what their opponents normally score. So, Texas is likely to score 28 points either way. Nebraska averages 25.6 PPG that’s 1.0 more than what their opponents give up. Texas allows 15.4 PPG that’s -12.4 what their opponents normally score. So, Nebraska is likely to score 13 to 16 points. Unless you want to grant, Texas a homefield advantage, this game this one is too close to call against a Vegas line of 13.5.
Florida 21 Alabama 16
Florida averages 36.5 PPG that’s 10.2 more than what their opponents give up. Alabama allows 10.8 PPG that’s -16.1 what their opponents normally score. So, Florida is likely to score 20 to 21 points. Alabama averages 31.7 PPG that’s 6.4 more than what their opponents give up. Florida allows 9.8 PPG that’s -16.0 what their opponents normally score. So, Alabama is likely to score 16 points either way. Against a Vegas line of 6.0 Alabama covers, but loses.
|Prediction for||Week 14||IPS||Vegas|
|Arkansas St.||36||Western Kentucky||18||18.2||6.5|
|Fla. Atlantic||35||Florida Int’l||33||2.1||0.0|
|NM St.||0||Boise State||50||-50.2||-46.5|
|San Jose St.||10||Louisiana Tech||32||-21.8||-18.5|