Impact Rankings/Predictions – Week 15

December 8, 2009

Well, the IPS went 7-7 on Championship week – about the same margin that the Horns managed to beat the Huskers. And, nothing to change the overal standing of the IPS which is 317-304 (51%) against the spread for the year.

With only one game that week, not much will change. For what it is worth: Army 9, Navy 20. So Navy wins but won’t cover.

Except for that final gam, here are the Impact Rankings leading into the bowl games. Texas’ IPS numbers took a hit, but narrowly remains #1. But, maybe the Horn Frogs do have an argument as they move up to #2 after the Gators lost to Bama.

I’ll work up a full bowl season report, but for those of you that just can’t wait, the different between the H2H numbers determines the IPS predicted spread for each matchup. Don’t forget to compensate for homefield advantages in certain cases. (Right now, I’m considering USC, Florida St. and the Aggies as having a HF Adv.)

    Off Def OppO OppD OImp DImp H2H
1 Texas 40.7 15.2 27.5 24.5 16.2 -12.4 27.0
2 TCU 40.7 12.4 23.8 27.2 13.4 -11.4 26.5
3 Boise State 44.2 17.7 25.7 30.4 13.8 -8.0 24.1
4 Florida 34.7 11.5 26.2 25.1 9.6 -14.7 23.7
5 Alabama 31.7 11.0 27.6 24.2 7.5 -16.6 22.4
6 Oklahoma 31.1 13.5 28.9 24.2 6.8 -15.4 19.9
7 Cincinnati 39.8 20.8 25.3 26.0 13.8 -4.5 18.7
8 Virginia Tech 31.4 15.8 26.6 22.5 8.9 -10.8 17.7
9 Ohio St. 29.3 12.2 25.7 25.1 4.1 -13.5 17.4
10 Penn St. 29.7 11.8 24.0 25.3 4.3 -12.2 17.2
11 Oregon 37.7 23.6 28.1 24.3 13.4 -4.5 16.0
12 Nebraska 24.5 11.2 27.6 23.7 0.8 -16.4 15.3
13 Texas Tech 36.7 21.8 27.0 26.6 10.1 -5.2 15.1
14 Central Mich. 33.2 17.2 24.1 27.6 5.6 -6.9 14.2
15 Pittsburgh 33.2 20.0 26.3 24.9 8.2 -6.3 13.9
16 Houston 43.9 28.8 25.7 28.9 15.0 3.1 13.5
17 Arkansas 37.3 25.8 27.1 24.6 12.7 -1.3 12.8
18 BYU 34.8 21.7 25.6 26.5 8.2 -3.9 12.6
19 Nevada 40.6 27.2 27.0 29.1 11.5 0.2 12.3
20 Clemson 31.9 21.0 27.7 25.5 6.5 -6.7 12.0
21 Air Force 28.3 15.3 23.8 26.3 1.9 -8.5 11.7
22 LSU 25.5 16.0 27.5 24.1 1.4 -11.5 11.2
23 Tennessee 30.6 21.0 26.0 23.2 7.4 -5.0 11.0
24 Georgia Tech 35.3 24.9 25.6 24.9 10.5 -0.8 10.8
25 Mississippi 30.3 18.6 24.5 26.2 4.1 -5.9 10.8
26 Miami (Fla.) 31.7 22.3 26.6 23.6 8.1 -4.3 10.8
27 Wisconsin 32.8 22.4 25.7 25.3 7.5 -3.3 10.6
28 Stanford 36.2 26.2 25.6 25.8 10.4 0.5 9.9
29 Oklahoma St. 30.2 21.8 28.2 26.9 3.3 -6.4 9.1
30 Oregon St. 32.4 23.4 26.4 26.4 6.1 -3.0 9.0
31 Utah 29.3 19.7 25.4 27.0 2.3 -5.8 8.8
32 Iowa 23.1 15.5 25.5 23.6 -0.5 -10.0 8.5
33 Rutgers 27.5 17.4 23.4 27.2 0.3 -6.0 8.2
34 Connecticut 32.1 25.0 25.4 23.6 8.4 -0.4 8.0
35 Auburn 32.9 26.9 26.8 23.4 9.5 0.1 7.7
36 Arizona 29.7 23.2 26.0 24.7 5.0 -2.8 7.1
37 USC 26.7 20.4 26.7 25.1 1.6 -6.2 7.0
38 North Carolina 24.3 16.9 26.0 26.8 -2.5 -9.1 7.0
39 Boston College 25.8 19.4 25.8 24.7 1.0 -6.4 6.9
40 Northern Ill. 30.8 21.2 23.9 29.8 0.9 -2.8 6.6
41 West Virginia 26.6 20.8 26.2 24.9 1.7 -5.5 6.5
42 Missouri 30.3 24.6 26.3 25.0 5.3 -1.7 6.4
43 Southern Miss. 33.0 24.5 24.4 28.9 4.1 0.1 6.3
44 Navy 28.3 21.3 25.6 27.2 1.1 -4.3 6.2
45 Notre Dame 30.1 25.9 29.0 25.5 4.6 -3.1 5.9
46 Fresno St. 34.3 27.8 27.6 28.9 5.4 0.2 5.8
47 Temple 30.3 21.7 21.2 27.3 2.9 0.4 5.5
48 Middle Tenn. 31.2 23.0 25.1 30.6 0.5 -2.1 5.4
49 Michigan St. 29.6 25.1 26.1 24.4 5.2 -1.0 5.3
50 East Caro. 27.8 22.1 26.5 27.4 0.3 -4.4 5.2
51 UCF 26.3 20.7 26.5 28.9 -2.5 -5.9 4.5
52 Kentucky 27.2 22.8 24.3 24.4 2.8 -1.5 4.3
53 South Fla. 26.4 21.2 25.3 27.2 -0.8 -4.1 4.3
54 California 29.3 24.5 24.9 26.5 2.8 -0.4 3.9
55 Troy 33.1 28.6 27.2 28.7 4.4 1.4 3.8
56 South Carolina 21.8 20.4 28.1 23.7 -1.9 -7.7 3.5
57 Georgia 27.7 26.4 27.1 22.8 4.9 -0.7 3.4
58 Ohio 25.4 21.3 24.6 26.4 -1.0 -3.3 3.2
59 Louisiana Tech 29.2 25.8 27.2 28.3 0.8 -1.4 2.8
60 Kansas 29.4 28.4 27.4 23.8 5.7 1.0 2.8
61 Texas A&M 33.9 32.7 28.0 25.2 8.7 4.7 2.7
62 Mississippi St. 25.6 26.8 29.8 22.5 3.0 -3.1 2.5
63 Michigan 29.5 27.5 25.2 25.4 4.1 2.3 1.9
64 Florida St. 29.8 30.8 27.9 23.3 6.6 2.8 1.4
65 Bowling Green 27.3 26.2 26.2 25.8 1.6 -0.1 1.4
66 UCLA 21.3 21.3 27.4 25.2 -3.9 -6.2 1.2
67 Arizona St. 22.3 21.1 26.3 26.6 -4.3 -5.3 1.1
68 Washington 26.1 26.7 27.9 25.0 1.1 -1.2 0.9
69 Tulsa 29.3 27.3 26.8 29.5 -0.2 0.6 0.6
70 Purdue 27.8 29.1 28.6 25.3 2.6 0.4 0.4
71 Wake Forest 26.3 26.3 27.3 26.8 -0.5 -1.1 0.3
72 Wyoming 16.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 -9.2 0.5 0.0
73 Northwestern 25.2 23.3 23.1 27.2 -2.0 0.3 -0.2
74 Buffalo 24.1 23.8 24.6 25.9 -1.9 -0.9 -0.3
75 Kansas St 23.0 23.3 24.6 25.9 -2.9 -1.3 -1.0
76 NC St. 30.3 31.2 24.5 25.5 4.8 6.7 -1.3
77 Minnesota 21.6 24.6 26.0 22.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5
78 Iowa St. 21.1 22.6 23.7 24.7 -3.6 -1.1 -2.0
79 Arkansas St. 22.7 23.3 23.9 28.7 -6.0 -0.6 -3.0
80 SMU 27.9 29.1 25.6 29.9 -2.0 3.5 -3.3
81 La.-Monroe 25.6 27.3 25.7 28.9 -3.3 1.7 -3.3
82 Baylor 20.8 27.3 28.1 22.9 -2.1 -0.9 -3.9
83 Idaho 31.8 35.5 27.3 28.0 3.8 8.2 -4.0
84 Marshall 21.8 24.9 25.6 27.9 -6.0 -0.7 -4.2
85 Illinois 24.2 30.2 27.7 24.5 -0.3 2.5 -4.4
86 Duke 25.2 28.3 24.1 26.8 -1.6 4.3 -4.5
87 Virginia 19.3 26.3 28.0 23.7 -4.4 -1.6 -4.9
88 Utah St. 29.1 34.0 28.1 28.5 0.6 5.9 -5.1
89 UAB 27.8 32.3 27.6 28.9 -1.1 4.7 -5.2
90 Colorado 22.3 28.8 27.3 24.6 -2.4 1.5 -5.2
91 Western Mich. 24.7 27.5 23.5 28.6 -3.9 4.0 -5.4
92 Syracuse 21.2 27.9 25.9 23.1 -2.0 2.0 -5.4
93 UTEP 29.8 33.5 26.0 29.7 0.2 7.5 -5.5
94 Indiana 23.5 29.5 24.7 24.4 -0.9 4.8 -5.8
95 Kent St. 19.3 22.4 21.8 27.4 -8.1 0.6 -5.9
96 Louisville 18.1 26.3 27.5 23.4 -5.4 -1.3 -6.1
97 Vanderbilt 16.3 23.3 25.4 24.3 -8.0 -2.1 -6.5
98 UNLV 24.8 32.4 26.5 25.9 -1.0 5.9 -7.3
99 Fla. Atlantic 27.4 33.8 24.6 27.9 -0.4 9.1 -7.9
100 Colorado St. 21.7 29.8 26.7 27.0 -5.4 3.1 -8.3
101 Hawaii 22.8 29.5 26.4 29.7 -7.0 3.0 -8.3
102 San Diego St. 23.3 30.5 24.1 26.7 -3.4 6.4 -8.5
103 Toledo 29.7 37.7 25.0 26.6 3.0 12.7 -8.8
104 Army 16.5 22.4 21.7 27.7 -11.3 0.7 -9.0
105 Maryland 21.3 31.3 26.6 25.2 -3.8 4.6 -9.2
106 Akron 19.3 28.8 24.4 24.9 -5.7 4.4 -9.8
107 La.-Lafayette 22.2 30.3 24.5 27.9 -5.7 5.8 -9.8
108 Wyoming 16.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 -9.2 0.5 -10.0
109 North Texas 26.6 35.6 24.8 27.0 -0.4 10.7 -10.1
110 Ball St. 19.2 28.2 25.4 27.8 -8.6 2.7 -10.2
111 Memphis 21.8 34.8 28.6 26.2 -4.4 6.2 -11.8
112 Florida Int’l 22.9 35.3 27.7 26.6 -3.7 7.6 -11.8
113 Miami (Ohio) 15.6 34.2 29.0 23.9 -8.3 5.2 -16.0
114 New Mexico 16.3 35.9 27.6 25.2 -8.9 8.3 -18.4
115 San Jose St. 13.8 34.5 28.9 27.8 -14.0 5.6 -20.2
116 Tulane 16.1 36.7 26.5 27.5 -11.4 10.1 -21.1
117 NM St. 11.5 31.6 27.4 29.4 -17.9 4.2 -21.2
118 Eastern Mich. 16.4 38.3 26.2 25.3 -8.9 12.0 -21.4
119 Rice 18.3 43.1 28.4 26.5 -8.3 14.7 -23.9
120 Washington St. 12.0 38.5 28.5 24.6 -12.6 10.0 -24.5