Well, the IPS got off to a slow start going 19-20 against the Vegas lines in Week 1. As I said, it is limited to last years’ data – so it can’t account for significant coaches and player changes. I checked and it was pretty much 50-50 across the board (e.g. home vs. away, favorite vs. dawg, ….) Only significant difference was in non-BCS to cover the spread over BCS teams, where the IPS went 2-4. But, the IPS already hickies the non-BCS teams for 10 points, so it’s hard to imagine giving them much more of a disadvantage.
This week the IPS has one week’s worth of games to go on, so hopefully it’s accuracy will improve. Still, it only really has the score to go on – since the impact factor against opponents is zero (with only one opponent). So, the data is still weighted 50 % with last year.
| Prediction for | Week 2 | IPS | Vegas | ||||
| Air Force | 29 | Minnesota | 22 | 7.3 | -4.0 | ||
| Arkansas St. | 21 | Nebraska | 36 | -14.7 | -23.5 | ||
| Bowling Green | 15 | Missouri | 39 | -23.3 | -17.5 | ||
| BYU | 32 | Tulane | 13 | 19.1 | 17.5 | ||
| Central Mich. | 7 | Michigan St. | 38 | -31.4 | -14.5 | ||
| Clemson | 22 | Georgia Tech | 24 | -2.5 | -4.5 | ||
| Colorado | 35 | Toledo | 18 | 16.8 | 3.0 | ||
| Duke | 22 | Army | 14 | 7.8 | -2.5 | ||
| East Caro. | 12 | West Virginia | 31 | -19.0 | -6.5 | ||
| Eastern Mich. | 10 | Northwestern | 42 | -31.9 | -18.0 | ||
| Florida Int’l | 5 | Alabama | 33 | -28.3 | -34.0 | ||
| Fresno St. | 24 | Wisconsin | 31 | -6.2 | -9.0 | ||
| Hawaii | 30 | Washington St. | 21 | 8.8 | 2.0 | ||
| Houston | 27 | Oklahoma St. | 36 | -9.2 | -15.5 | ||
| Idaho | 21 | Washington | 28 | -6.4 | -20.0 | ||
| Iowa | 26 | Iowa St. | 19 | 7.4 | 7.0 | ||
| Kansas | 43 | UTEP | 16 | 26.2 | 10.5 | ||
| Kansas St | 33 | La.-Lafayette | 29 | 4.1 | 7.0 | ||
| Kent St. | 7 | Boston College | 36 | -28.3 | -21.0 | ||
| Louisiana Tech | 20 | Navy | 31 | -11.1 | -7.5 | ||
| Marshall | 15 | Virginia Tech | 32 | -17.4 | -20.0 | ||
| Memphis | 25 | Middle Tenn. | 27 | -2.4 | -1.0 | ||
| Miami (Ohio) | 2 | Boise State | 39 | -37.7 | -36.0 | ||
| Mississippi St. | 18 | Auburn | 22 | -4.9 | -14.0 | ||
| North Carolina | 25 | Connecticut | 20 | 5.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Notre Dame | 22 | Michigan | 19 | 2.7 | 3.5 | ||
| Ohio | 27 | North Texas | 22 | 5.3 | 3.0 | ||
| Oregon St. | 31 | UNLV | 18 | 12.9 | 7.0 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 32 | Buffalo | 15 | 17.0 | 11.5 | ||
| Purdue | 29 | Oregon | 32 | -3.0 | -11.5 | ||
| Rice | 21 | Texas Tech | 52 | -31.1 | -26.5 | ||
| South Carolina | 16 | Georgia | 20 | -3.8 | -7.5 | ||
| South Fla. | 45 | Western Kentucky | 5 | 39.9 | 24.0 | ||
| USC | 30 | Ohio St. | 17 | 13.0 | 6.5 | ||
| SMU | 26 | UAB | 33 | -6.9 | -12.0 | ||
| Stanford | 24 | Wake Forest | 22 | 2.6 | -2.5 | ||
| Syracuse | 9 | Penn St. | 39 | -30.5 | -28.0 | ||
| TCU | 15 | Virginia | 11 | 4.0 | 11.0 | ||
| Texas | 45 | Wyoming | 10 | 35.7 | 33.5 | ||
| Troy | 7 | Florida | 49 | -42.2 | -37.0 | ||
| Tulsa | 38 | New Mexico | 17 | 21.0 | 17.5 | ||
| UCF | 12 | Southern Miss. | 34 | -21.7 | -15.0 | ||
| UCLA | 13 | Tennessee | 32 | -18.9 | -8.0 | ||
| Utah | 38 | San Jose St. | 10 | 28.6 | 13.5 | ||
| Vanderbilt | 24 | LSU | 23 | 1.1 | -14.5 | ||
| Western Mich. | 16 | Indiana | 28 | -12.0 | -1.0 |
Comments:
Horns 45, WY 10 – Horns just missed covering when their 3rd string defense gave up a couple late scores. But, the IPS has them covering a big spread again. Seems like Brown is more willing to let GG run the 2nd team with an intent to score, so I expect UT will do better at covering spreads, than they have in the past.
USC 30, tOSU 17 – Not surprising that tOSU isn’t getting much IPS love after that lackluster victory.
ND 22, MI 19 – This game will be billed as much bigger than it really is. Both teams are better than last year, but last year they were awful.
AF 29, Minn 22 – The IPS numbers may be overly influenced by AF’s 72-0 romp in the first week, so the upset may be too much. But, AF may well cover.
Vandy 24, LSU 23 – Similar story here. Vandy romped 45-0, while LSU struggled against a WA team that was horrible last year. So, not sure about the upset, but Vandy may cover.
Impact Prediction System 