No IPS for 2010

My apologies, but life has just gotten too busy for me to indulge in some IPS fun. I hope to get back to it someday, but for now you are own your own.

Impact Predictions – Bowl Season

OK, Here we go. The final stretch for college football – bowl season. Although it’s been a difficult season for the IPS to predict (only 51% against the Vegas spread), we can always hope that it will do as well as last year when the IPS went 20-8 in bowl predictions against the spread.

In particular, let’s hope it is correct in predicting in the National Championship game – as it did the first time I used it to predict the UT-USC game. In that case, it correctly predicted that the wrong team was favored outright, predicting UT would win 44-37. And, again, the IPS is suggesting that you shouldn’t buy into the media hype. Texas should rightly be favored ….

Prediction for			Bowls			IPS	Vegas
Fresno St.	34		Wyoming	18		15.9	11.0
UCF	13		Rutgers	26		-13.7	-2.5
So. Miss.	29		Middle Tenn	28		0.9	3.5
Oregon State	33		BYU	27		6.4	2.5
Utah	23		California	28		-5.1	-3.5
Nevada	42		SMU	27		15.7	15.0
Marshall	17		Ohio	24		-7.4	-3.0
Pittsburgh	25		North Carolina	18		6.9	3.0
Boston College	18		USC	23		-4.2	-9.5
Kentucky	22		Clemson	30		-7.8	-7.0
Texas A&M	34		Georgia	35		-0.8	-7.0
UCLA	25		Temple	19		5.7	4.5
Wisconsin	29		Miami	29		-0.3	-4.0
Bowling Green	36		Idaho	31		5.4	1.5
Arizona	15		Nebraska	23		-8.1	2.0
Houston	33		Air Force	31		1.9	4.5
Oklahoma	32		Stanford	22		10.0	8.0
Navy	21		Missouri	31		-10.2	-6.5
Minnesota	21		Iowa State	20		0.5	2.5
Virginia Tech	28		Tennessee	21		6.7	4.5
Northwestern	25		Auburn	33		-7.9	-7.5
Penn St.	19		LSU	13		6.0	3.0
West Virginia	29		Florida St	28		1.1	3.0
Ohio State	26		Oregon	25		1.4	-3.5
Florida	30		Cincinnati	25		5.0	11.0
So. Florida	27		No. Illinois	19		7.7	6.5
South Carolina	22		UConn	27		-4.4	4.5
OK State	23		Ole Miss	25		-1.8	-3.0
Arkansas	39		ECU	21		17.6	7.5
Michigan St	26		Texas Tech	35		-9.8	-8.0
Boise St.	29		TCU	32		-2.4	-7.0
Iowa	23		Georgia Tech	26		-2.3	-4.0
Central Mich	34		Troy	24		10.4	4.0
Texas	26		Alabama	21		4.7	-5.0

Impact Rankings/Predictions – Week 15

Well, the IPS went 7-7 on Championship week – about the same margin that the Horns managed to beat the Huskers. And, nothing to change the overal standing of the IPS which is 317-304 (51%) against the spread for the year.

With only one game that week, not much will change. For what it is worth: Army 9, Navy 20. So Navy wins but won’t cover.

Except for that final gam, here are the Impact Rankings leading into the bowl games. Texas’ IPS numbers took a hit, but narrowly remains #1. But, maybe the Horn Frogs do have an argument as they move up to #2 after the Gators lost to Bama.

I’ll work up a full bowl season report, but for those of you that just can’t wait, the different between the H2H numbers determines the IPS predicted spread for each matchup. Don’t forget to compensate for homefield advantages in certain cases. (Right now, I’m considering USC, Florida St. and the Aggies as having a HF Adv.)

		Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp	H2H
1	Texas	40.7	15.2	27.5	24.5	16.2	-12.4	27.0
2	TCU	40.7	12.4	23.8	27.2	13.4	-11.4	26.5
3	Boise State	44.2	17.7	25.7	30.4	13.8	-8.0	24.1
4	Florida	34.7	11.5	26.2	25.1	9.6	-14.7	23.7
5	Alabama	31.7	11.0	27.6	24.2	7.5	-16.6	22.4
6	Oklahoma	31.1	13.5	28.9	24.2	6.8	-15.4	19.9
7	Cincinnati	39.8	20.8	25.3	26.0	13.8	-4.5	18.7
8	Virginia Tech	31.4	15.8	26.6	22.5	8.9	-10.8	17.7
9	Ohio St.	29.3	12.2	25.7	25.1	4.1	-13.5	17.4
10	Penn St.	29.7	11.8	24.0	25.3	4.3	-12.2	17.2
11	Oregon	37.7	23.6	28.1	24.3	13.4	-4.5	16.0
12	Nebraska	24.5	11.2	27.6	23.7	0.8	-16.4	15.3
13	Texas Tech	36.7	21.8	27.0	26.6	10.1	-5.2	15.1
14	Central Mich.	33.2	17.2	24.1	27.6	5.6	-6.9	14.2
15	Pittsburgh	33.2	20.0	26.3	24.9	8.2	-6.3	13.9
16	Houston	43.9	28.8	25.7	28.9	15.0	3.1	13.5
17	Arkansas	37.3	25.8	27.1	24.6	12.7	-1.3	12.8
18	BYU	34.8	21.7	25.6	26.5	8.2	-3.9	12.6
19	Nevada	40.6	27.2	27.0	29.1	11.5	0.2	12.3
20	Clemson	31.9	21.0	27.7	25.5	6.5	-6.7	12.0
21	Air Force	28.3	15.3	23.8	26.3	1.9	-8.5	11.7
22	LSU	25.5	16.0	27.5	24.1	1.4	-11.5	11.2
23	Tennessee	30.6	21.0	26.0	23.2	7.4	-5.0	11.0
24	Georgia Tech	35.3	24.9	25.6	24.9	10.5	-0.8	10.8
25	Mississippi	30.3	18.6	24.5	26.2	4.1	-5.9	10.8
26	Miami (Fla.)	31.7	22.3	26.6	23.6	8.1	-4.3	10.8
27	Wisconsin	32.8	22.4	25.7	25.3	7.5	-3.3	10.6
28	Stanford	36.2	26.2	25.6	25.8	10.4	0.5	9.9
29	Oklahoma St.	30.2	21.8	28.2	26.9	3.3	-6.4	9.1
30	Oregon St.	32.4	23.4	26.4	26.4	6.1	-3.0	9.0
31	Utah	29.3	19.7	25.4	27.0	2.3	-5.8	8.8
32	Iowa	23.1	15.5	25.5	23.6	-0.5	-10.0	8.5
33	Rutgers	27.5	17.4	23.4	27.2	0.3	-6.0	8.2
34	Connecticut	32.1	25.0	25.4	23.6	8.4	-0.4	8.0
35	Auburn	32.9	26.9	26.8	23.4	9.5	0.1	7.7
36	Arizona	29.7	23.2	26.0	24.7	5.0	-2.8	7.1
37	USC	26.7	20.4	26.7	25.1	1.6	-6.2	7.0
38	North Carolina	24.3	16.9	26.0	26.8	-2.5	-9.1	7.0
39	Boston College	25.8	19.4	25.8	24.7	1.0	-6.4	6.9
40	Northern Ill.	30.8	21.2	23.9	29.8	0.9	-2.8	6.6
41	West Virginia	26.6	20.8	26.2	24.9	1.7	-5.5	6.5
42	Missouri	30.3	24.6	26.3	25.0	5.3	-1.7	6.4
43	Southern Miss.	33.0	24.5	24.4	28.9	4.1	0.1	6.3
44	Navy	28.3	21.3	25.6	27.2	1.1	-4.3	6.2
45	Notre Dame	30.1	25.9	29.0	25.5	4.6	-3.1	5.9
46	Fresno St.	34.3	27.8	27.6	28.9	5.4	0.2	5.8
47	Temple	30.3	21.7	21.2	27.3	2.9	0.4	5.5
48	Middle Tenn.	31.2	23.0	25.1	30.6	0.5	-2.1	5.4
49	Michigan St.	29.6	25.1	26.1	24.4	5.2	-1.0	5.3
50	East Caro.	27.8	22.1	26.5	27.4	0.3	-4.4	5.2
51	UCF	26.3	20.7	26.5	28.9	-2.5	-5.9	4.5
52	Kentucky	27.2	22.8	24.3	24.4	2.8	-1.5	4.3
53	South Fla.	26.4	21.2	25.3	27.2	-0.8	-4.1	4.3
54	California	29.3	24.5	24.9	26.5	2.8	-0.4	3.9
55	Troy	33.1	28.6	27.2	28.7	4.4	1.4	3.8
56	South Carolina	21.8	20.4	28.1	23.7	-1.9	-7.7	3.5
57	Georgia	27.7	26.4	27.1	22.8	4.9	-0.7	3.4
58	Ohio	25.4	21.3	24.6	26.4	-1.0	-3.3	3.2
59	Louisiana Tech	29.2	25.8	27.2	28.3	0.8	-1.4	2.8
60	Kansas	29.4	28.4	27.4	23.8	5.7	1.0	2.8
61	Texas A&M	33.9	32.7	28.0	25.2	8.7	4.7	2.7
62	Mississippi St.	25.6	26.8	29.8	22.5	3.0	-3.1	2.5
63	Michigan	29.5	27.5	25.2	25.4	4.1	2.3	1.9
64	Florida St.	29.8	30.8	27.9	23.3	6.6	2.8	1.4
65	Bowling Green	27.3	26.2	26.2	25.8	1.6	-0.1	1.4
66	UCLA	21.3	21.3	27.4	25.2	-3.9	-6.2	1.2
67	Arizona St.	22.3	21.1	26.3	26.6	-4.3	-5.3	1.1
68	Washington	26.1	26.7	27.9	25.0	1.1	-1.2	0.9
69	Tulsa	29.3	27.3	26.8	29.5	-0.2	0.6	0.6
70	Purdue	27.8	29.1	28.6	25.3	2.6	0.4	0.4
71	Wake Forest	26.3	26.3	27.3	26.8	-0.5	-1.1	0.3
72	Wyoming	16.9	27.3	26.7	26.1	-9.2	0.5	0.0
73	Northwestern	25.2	23.3	23.1	27.2	-2.0	0.3	-0.2
74	Buffalo	24.1	23.8	24.6	25.9	-1.9	-0.9	-0.3
75	Kansas St	23.0	23.3	24.6	25.9	-2.9	-1.3	-1.0
76	NC St.	30.3	31.2	24.5	25.5	4.8	6.7	-1.3
77	Minnesota	21.6	24.6	26.0	22.9	-1.4	-1.4	-1.5
78	Iowa St.	21.1	22.6	23.7	24.7	-3.6	-1.1	-2.0
79	Arkansas St.	22.7	23.3	23.9	28.7	-6.0	-0.6	-3.0
80	SMU	27.9	29.1	25.6	29.9	-2.0	3.5	-3.3
81	La.-Monroe	25.6	27.3	25.7	28.9	-3.3	1.7	-3.3
82	Baylor	20.8	27.3	28.1	22.9	-2.1	-0.9	-3.9
83	Idaho	31.8	35.5	27.3	28.0	3.8	8.2	-4.0
84	Marshall	21.8	24.9	25.6	27.9	-6.0	-0.7	-4.2
85	Illinois	24.2	30.2	27.7	24.5	-0.3	2.5	-4.4
86	Duke	25.2	28.3	24.1	26.8	-1.6	4.3	-4.5
87	Virginia	19.3	26.3	28.0	23.7	-4.4	-1.6	-4.9
88	Utah St.	29.1	34.0	28.1	28.5	0.6	5.9	-5.1
89	UAB	27.8	32.3	27.6	28.9	-1.1	4.7	-5.2
90	Colorado	22.3	28.8	27.3	24.6	-2.4	1.5	-5.2
91	Western Mich.	24.7	27.5	23.5	28.6	-3.9	4.0	-5.4
92	Syracuse	21.2	27.9	25.9	23.1	-2.0	2.0	-5.4
93	UTEP	29.8	33.5	26.0	29.7	0.2	7.5	-5.5
94	Indiana	23.5	29.5	24.7	24.4	-0.9	4.8	-5.8
95	Kent St.	19.3	22.4	21.8	27.4	-8.1	0.6	-5.9
96	Louisville	18.1	26.3	27.5	23.4	-5.4	-1.3	-6.1
97	Vanderbilt	16.3	23.3	25.4	24.3	-8.0	-2.1	-6.5
98	UNLV	24.8	32.4	26.5	25.9	-1.0	5.9	-7.3
99	Fla. Atlantic	27.4	33.8	24.6	27.9	-0.4	9.1	-7.9
100	Colorado St.	21.7	29.8	26.7	27.0	-5.4	3.1	-8.3
101	Hawaii	22.8	29.5	26.4	29.7	-7.0	3.0	-8.3
102	San Diego St.	23.3	30.5	24.1	26.7	-3.4	6.4	-8.5
103	Toledo	29.7	37.7	25.0	26.6	3.0	12.7	-8.8
104	Army	16.5	22.4	21.7	27.7	-11.3	0.7	-9.0
105	Maryland	21.3	31.3	26.6	25.2	-3.8	4.6	-9.2
106	Akron	19.3	28.8	24.4	24.9	-5.7	4.4	-9.8
107	La.-Lafayette	22.2	30.3	24.5	27.9	-5.7	5.8	-9.8
108	Wyoming	16.9	27.3	26.7	26.1	-9.2	0.5	-10.0
109	North Texas	26.6	35.6	24.8	27.0	-0.4	10.7	-10.1
110	Ball St.	19.2	28.2	25.4	27.8	-8.6	2.7	-10.2
111	Memphis	21.8	34.8	28.6	26.2	-4.4	6.2	-11.8
112	Florida Int’l	22.9	35.3	27.7	26.6	-3.7	7.6	-11.8
113	Miami (Ohio)	15.6	34.2	29.0	23.9	-8.3	5.2	-16.0
114	New Mexico	16.3	35.9	27.6	25.2	-8.9	8.3	-18.4
115	San Jose St.	13.8	34.5	28.9	27.8	-14.0	5.6	-20.2
116	Tulane	16.1	36.7	26.5	27.5	-11.4	10.1	-21.1
117	NM St.	11.5	31.6	27.4	29.4	-17.9	4.2	-21.2
118	Eastern Mich.	16.4	38.3	26.2	25.3	-8.9	12.0	-21.4
119	Rice	18.3	43.1	28.4	26.5	-8.3	14.7	-23.9
120	Washington St.	12.0	38.5	28.5	24.6	-12.6	10.0	-24.5

IPS Predictions – Week 14

Well, a second losing week in a row (18-24) drops the IPS to a mere 51.1% ATS for the year. But, you got to admit, it has been a strange year. For instance A&M beats Tech, Tech pummels OU, OU pummels Tech, ….

It’s hard to predict outcomes based on prior performances, if you never know whose gonna show up from week to week. Oh, assuming the teams do play up to (or down to) their prior efforts, here’s what ‘should’ happen this week:

Texas  28    Nebraska    15

Texas averages  43.0 PPG that’s 17.4 more than what their opponents give up. Nebraska allows 11.1 PPG that’s    -15.4 what their opponents normally score.    So,  Texas  is likely to score 28 points either way.  Nebraska averages 25.6 PPG that’s  1.0    more than what their opponents give up. Texas  allows 15.4 PPG that’s  -12.4 what their opponents normally score. So,    Nebraska is likely to score 13 to 16 points.  Unless you want to grant, Texas a homefield advantage, this game this one is too close to call against a Vegas line of 13.5.

Florida    21    Alabama 16   

Florida averages 36.5 PPG that’s  10.2 more than what their opponents give up. Alabama  allows 10.8 PPG that’s  -16.1 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Florida is likely to score 20 to 21 points. Alabama  averages 31.7 PPG that’s 6.4 more than what their opponents give up.   Florida allows 9.8  PPG that’s -16.0 what their opponents normally score.   So,  Alabama is likely to score 16 points either way.   Against a Vegas line of  6.0 Alabama covers, but loses.

Prediction for			Week 14			IPS	Vegas
Arizona	23		USC	28		-5.7	-7.5
Arkansas St.	36		Western Kentucky	18		18.2	6.5
California	31		Washington	24		7.4	6.5
Cincinnati	29		Pittsburgh	29		0.4	0.0
Fla. Atlantic	35		Florida Int’l	33		2.1	0.0
Fresno St.	27		Illinois	27		-0.5	-1.0
NM St.	0		Boise State	50		-50.2	-46.5
Oregon St.	25		Oregon	37		-12.0	-9.5
San Jose St.	10		Louisiana Tech	32		-21.8	-18.5
South Fla.	23		Connecticut	30		-6.9	-7.0
West Virginia	18		Rutgers	24		-6.6	2.5
Wisconsin	37		Hawaii	16		21.2	11.5
Ohio	19		Central Mich.	30		-10.8	-12.0
Houston	39		East Caro.	29		10.4	1.0
Florida	21		Alabama	16		4.7	6.0
Texas	28		Nebraska	15		13.2	13.5
Georgia Tech	28		Clemson	31		-2.1	1.0

IPS Rankings – Week 14

		Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp	H2H
1	Texas	43.0	15.4	27.8	25.6	17.4	-12.4	28.7
2	TCU	40.7	12.4	23.8	27.1	13.6	-11.4	26.6
3	Florida	36.5	9.8	25.8	26.3	10.2	-16.0	26.4
4	Boise State	44.3	18.6	26.6	29.8	14.6	-8.0	24.2
5	Alabama	31.7	10.8	27.0	25.3	6.4	-16.1	21.7
6	Oklahoma	31.1	13.5	29.1	24.2	6.8	-15.6	20.0
7	Cincinnati	39.4	18.6	24.2	25.9	13.5	-5.6	19.9
8	Virginia Tech	31.4	15.8	26.6	22.3	9.1	-10.8	17.8
9	Ohio St.	29.3	12.2	25.4	25.0	4.3	-13.3	17.3
10	Penn St.	29.7	11.8	23.8	25.2	4.5	-12.0	17.2
11	Oregon	37.7	22.7	27.9	24.5	13.2	-5.2	16.7
12	Nebraska	25.6	11.1	26.5	24.6	1.0	-15.4	15.5
13	Texas Tech	36.7	21.8	27.3	26.5	10.1	-5.6	15.3
14	Houston	44.9	28.0	25.5	29.5	15.4	2.5	14.9
15	Pittsburgh	32.2	17.7	25.2	25.2	7.0	-7.5	14.5
16	Central Mich.	34.3	17.8	24.1	28.1	6.1	-6.2	14.4
17	Clemson	31.8	19.5	27.1	25.4	6.3	-7.6	13.1
18	Arkansas	37.3	25.8	27.2	24.4	12.9	-1.5	13.0
19	BYU	34.8	21.7	25.6	26.5	8.2	-3.9	12.6
20	Nevada	40.6	27.2	26.7	28.7	11.9	0.5	12.4
21	Air Force	28.3	15.3	23.8	26.3	1.9	-8.5	11.7
22	Tennessee	30.6	21.0	26.2	23.1	7.4	-5.2	11.1
23	LSU	25.5	16.0	27.3	24.2	1.3	-11.3	11.1
24	Georgia Tech	35.0	24.1	25.1	25.0	10.0	-1.0	10.9
25	Miami (Fla.)	31.7	22.3	26.5	23.4	8.3	-4.2	10.9
26	Mississippi	30.3	18.6	24.5	26.2	4.1	-5.9	10.8
27	Stanford	36.2	26.2	25.7	25.5	10.7	0.4	10.1
28	Oregon St.	32.4	22.2	25.6	26.5	5.9	-3.4	9.7
29	Oklahoma St.	30.2	21.8	28.5	26.8	3.3	-6.7	9.2
30	Rutgers	28.1	16.8	23.0	27.4	0.7	-6.2	9.1
31	Utah	29.3	19.7	25.4	26.7	2.5	-5.7	8.9
32	Connecticut	32.4	24.8	25.4	23.4	9.0	-0.5	8.5
33	Iowa	23.1	15.5	25.4	23.8	-0.7	-9.9	8.4
34	Wisconsin	31.1	23.6	25.9	24.7	6.4	-2.3	8.1
35	USC	27.6	20.4	26.4	24.9	2.7	-6.0	7.9
36	Auburn	32.9	26.9	26.7	23.4	9.5	0.2	7.6
37	California	31.0	22.9	24.9	26.3	4.7	-2.0	7.4
38	Arizona	30.5	23.7	26.0	24.9	5.5	-2.3	7.3
39	North Carolina	24.3	16.9	25.9	26.7	-2.3	-9.0	7.0
40	Boston College	25.8	19.4	25.9	24.6	1.1	-6.4	6.9
41	Northern Ill.	30.8	21.2	24.0	30.0	0.8	-2.8	6.6
42	Fresno St.	32.6	25.6	27.6	28.4	4.2	-1.9	6.6
43	Missouri	30.3	24.6	26.4	24.8	5.5	-1.8	6.5
44	West Virginia	26.8	20.7	25.9	25.1	1.8	-5.2	6.5
45	Southern Miss.	33.0	24.5	24.4	28.7	4.3	0.1	6.3
46	Navy	28.3	21.3	25.4	27.0	1.3	-4.1	6.2
47	Notre Dame	30.1	25.9	28.9	25.4	4.6	-3.0	5.9
48	Temple	30.3	21.7	21.3	27.3	2.9	0.3	5.6
49	Middle Tenn.	31.2	23.0	25.1	30.8	0.4	-2.1	5.3
50	Michigan St.	29.6	25.1	25.8	24.4	5.2	-0.8	5.2
51	South Fla.	26.4	20.5	24.6	27.1	-0.7	-4.2	4.7
52	UCF	26.3	20.7	26.7	28.7	-2.4	-6.1	4.7
53	East Caro.	26.9	21.3	25.0	27.3	-0.4	-3.8	4.5
54	Kentucky	27.2	22.8	24.5	24.3	2.9	-1.6	4.4
55	Troy	33.1	28.6	27.3	28.8	4.3	1.3	3.8
56	South Carolina	21.8	20.4	28.2	23.5	-1.8	-7.8	3.7
57	Ohio	26.7	21.4	23.9	27.1	-0.5	-2.5	3.6
58	Georgia	27.7	26.4	27.3	22.6	5.1	-0.8	3.6
59	Kansas	29.4	28.4	27.7	23.8	5.6	0.7	3.0
60	Texas A&M	33.9	32.7	28.2	25.2	8.7	4.5	2.8
61	Mississippi St.	25.6	26.8	30.0	22.3	3.3	-3.3	2.7
62	Michigan	29.5	27.5	24.9	25.4	4.1	2.6	1.7
63	Florida St.	29.8	30.8	28.0	22.9	7.0	2.7	1.6
64	Bowling Green	27.3	26.2	26.5	25.9	1.4	-0.3	1.4
65	UCLA	21.3	21.3	27.6	25.1	-3.7	-6.3	1.3
66	Arizona St.	22.3	21.1	26.5	26.5	-4.1	-5.4	1.3
67	Louisiana Tech	26.8	26.3	28.4	27.4	-0.6	-2.1	1.0
68	Tulsa	29.3	27.3	26.8	29.4	-0.2	0.5	0.6
69	Wake Forest	26.3	26.3	27.3	26.6	-0.3	-1.0	0.4
70	Purdue	27.8	29.1	28.3	25.1	2.7	0.8	0.3
71	Wyoming	16.9	27.3	26.9	26.2	-9.3	0.3	0.0
72	Buffalo	24.1	23.8	24.8	25.8	-1.7	-1.0	-0.2
73	Northwestern	25.2	23.3	22.7	27.1	-2.0	0.6	-0.4
74	Kansas St	23.0	23.3	24.7	25.9	-2.9	-1.4	-0.9
75	NC St.	30.3	31.2	24.4	25.2	5.2	6.8	-1.2
76	Minnesota	21.6	24.6	25.8	22.7	-1.1	-1.2	-1.5
77	Iowa St.	21.1	22.6	23.8	24.7	-3.6	-1.2	-1.9
78	Washington	24.6	28.2	27.9	24.9	-0.2	0.2	-2.0
79	Arkansas St.	22.6	23.6	24.3	27.9	-5.3	-0.7	-2.8
80	SMU	27.9	29.1	25.6	29.8	-1.8	3.5	-3.2
81	La.-Monroe	25.6	27.3	25.9	29.2	-3.6	1.5	-3.4
82	Baylor	20.8	27.3	28.4	22.9	-2.1	-1.2	-3.7
83	Idaho	31.8	35.5	26.9	27.7	4.1	8.6	-4.1
84	Marshall	21.8	24.9	25.6	27.8	-6.0	-0.6	-4.2
85	Duke	25.2	28.3	24.1	26.7	-1.6	4.3	-4.5
86	Virginia	19.3	26.3	27.9	23.5	-4.2	-1.6	-4.8
87	Illinois	21.6	28.1	27.0	24.0	-2.4	1.1	-4.9
88	Utah St.	29.1	34.0	27.9	28.0	1.1	6.1	-5.0
89	Colorado	22.3	28.8	27.6	24.6	-2.4	1.2	-5.1
90	Syracuse	21.2	27.9	25.9	22.7	-1.5	2.1	-5.1
91	UAB	27.8	32.3	27.5	28.9	-1.1	4.8	-5.2
92	UTEP	29.8	33.5	26.3	29.5	0.3	7.2	-5.3
93	Western Mich.	24.7	27.5	23.6	28.6	-3.9	3.9	-5.3
94	Kent St.	19.3	22.4	21.9	27.4	-8.2	0.5	-5.9
95	Louisville	18.1	26.3	27.5	23.0	-4.9	-1.2	-5.9
96	Indiana	23.5	29.5	24.3	24.3	-0.8	5.2	-6.0
97	Hawaii	23.8	27.7	25.6	30.1	-6.2	2.1	-6.1
98	Vanderbilt	16.3	23.3	25.5	24.1	-7.8	-2.2	-6.3
99	UNLV	24.8	32.4	26.6	25.6	-0.8	5.8	-7.1
100	Colorado St.	21.7	29.8	26.7	27.0	-5.4	3.1	-8.3
101	San Diego St.	23.3	30.5	24.1	26.7	-3.3	6.4	-8.5
102	Fla. Atlantic	27.4	34.9	24.9	27.3	0.0	10.0	-8.8
103	Toledo	29.7	37.7	25.1	26.8	2.9	12.6	-8.8
104	Army	16.5	22.4	21.7	27.7	-11.2	0.6	-8.9
105	Maryland	21.3	31.3	26.8	24.8	-3.5	4.4	-8.9
106	Akron	19.3	28.8	24.6	25.0	-5.7	4.2	-9.7
107	La.-Lafayette	22.2	30.3	24.6	28.2	-6.0	5.7	-9.9
108	Wyoming	16.9	27.3	26.9	26.2	-9.3	0.3	-10.0
109	Ball St.	19.2	28.2	25.6	27.9	-8.7	2.5	-10.1
110	North Texas	26.6	35.6	25.0	27.3	-0.7	10.6	-10.2
111	Memphis	21.8	34.8	28.6	26.1	-4.3	6.2	-11.7
112	Florida Int’l	23.1	36.0	28.0	25.9	-2.8	8.0	-11.9
113	Miami (Ohio)	15.6	34.2	29.1	23.8	-8.2	5.1	-15.9
114	New Mexico	16.3	35.9	27.6	25.1	-8.8	8.3	-18.4
115	San Jose St.	13.2	32.6	29.0	27.6	-14.4	3.7	-18.8
116	Tulane	16.1	36.7	26.6	27.4	-11.3	10.0	-21.0
117	NM St.	11.8	30.8	25.7	29.9	-18.1	5.1	-21.0
118	Eastern Mich.	16.4	38.3	26.3	25.3	-8.9	11.9	-21.3
119	Rice	18.3	43.1	28.4	26.4	-8.2	14.7	-23.9
120	Washington St.	12.0	38.5	28.8	24.3	-12.3	9.7	-24.2

IPS Predictions – Week 13

Well, the IPS seems to be in a cycle of good one week, bad the next. It went a pathetic 18-28 against the line. But, if the cycle continues, hopefully this will be a better week.

Prediction for			Week 13			IPS	Vegas
Alabama	32		Auburn	20		12.0	12.0
Arizona	24		Arizona St.	23		1.3	2.5
Arkansas	26		LSU	25		0.8	-3.5
Ball St.	19		Western Mich.	29		-9.4	-10.0
Boston College	27		Marshall	12		14.6	6.0
Buffalo	23		Kent St.	21		1.8	4.0
Clemson	26		South Carolina	14		11.7	3.0
Eastern Mich.	19		Akron	33		-13.9	-17.0
Florida St.	17		Florida	41		-23.9	-22.5
Georgia	27		Georgia Tech	37		-10.4	-7.0
Illinois	11		Cincinnati	41		-30.2	-17.0
Marshall	29		UTEP	24		4.8	-1.0
Memphis	21		Tulsa	36		-15.4	-15.5
Miami (Fla.)	26		South Fla.	26		0.0	1.0
Middle Tenn.	27		La.-Monroe	24		3.4	4.0
Mississippi	28		Mississippi St.	18		10.0	7.0
Missouri	30		Kansas	28		2.0	4.0
Navy	32		Hawaii	17		14.5	7.5
Nebraska	26		Colorado	9		16.6	8.0
Nevada	30		Boise State	44		-13.4	-10.5
New Mexico	3		TCU	48		-44.9	-43.0
NM St.	15		San Jose St.	21		-5.9	-10.0
North Carolina	30		NC St.	21		8.5	5.0
North Texas	22		Arkansas St.	34		-11.9	-6.5
Northern Ill.	18		Central Mich.	28		-10.3	-9.5
Notre Dame	26		Stanford	35		-8.4	-7.5
Oklahoma St.	18		Oklahoma	28		-10.3	-8.5
Pittsburgh	29		West Virginia	21		8.6	1.0
Rice	21		Houston	56		-35.3	-28.0
Rutgers	24		Louisville	14		10.4	4.0
San Diego St.	28		UNLV	33		-4.8	-4.0
Southern Miss.	28		East Caro.	27		0.8	-3.5
Syracuse	18		Connecticut	33		-14.9	-12.0
Temple	26		Ohio	24		1.6	3.0
Tennessee	27		Kentucky	25		2.4	3.5
Texas	45		Texas A&M	22		23.4	22.5
Texas Tech	37		Baylor	21		15.7	22.5
Toledo	28		Bowling Green	42		-13.9	-9.5
Troy	32		La.-Lafayette	24		7.4	10.0
Tulane	16		SMU	41		-24.2	-17.0
UCF	27		UAB	23		4.9	3.0
UCLA	18		USC	22		-4.5	-12.5
Utah	23		BYU	31		-8.7	-7.5
Utah St.	32		Idaho	37		-4.4	0.0
Virginia Tech	28		Virginia	13		15.5	13.0
Wake Forest	26		Duke	23		2.8	3.0
Washington St.	16		Washington	38		-21.8	-23.5
Western Kentucky	27		Fla. Atlantic	46		-18.6	-12.5
Wyoming	21		Colorado St.	24		-3.2	-3.0

Impact Rankings – Week 13

Texas still a solid #1 in the IPS rankings. That’s not any home cooking on my part. The Horns simply have score more and allowed less points relative to our opponents.

		Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp	H2H
1	Texas	42.5	13.3	27.4	25.0	17.4	-14.1	30.3
2	Florida	36.5	9.8	25.1	25.7	10.8	-15.3	26.3
3	TCU	39.7	12.6	24.8	26.4	13.4	-12.2	26.3
4	Boise State	44.4	17.3	24.9	30.0	14.3	-7.6	24.5
5	Alabama	32.2	9.9	26.2	24.8	7.4	-16.3	23.0
6	Cincinnati	38.4	16.9	24.4	25.3	13.1	-7.5	21.1
7	Oklahoma	31.5	14.7	29.1	24.2	7.3	-14.4	19.2
8	Virginia Tech	30.5	16.0	27.4	21.6	8.9	-11.4	17.4
9	Ohio St.	29.3	12.2	25.5	25.0	4.2	-13.3	17.3
10	Penn St.	29.7	11.8	23.6	24.7	4.9	-11.8	17.3
11	Oregon	37.7	22.7	28.2	24.7	13.0	-5.5	16.7
12	Texas Tech	38.2	22.6	27.9	25.8	12.4	-5.3	16.7
13	Nebraska	25.4	10.3	26.7	24.2	1.2	-16.4	16.4
14	Pittsburgh	33.8	17.6	25.0	25.2	8.6	-7.4	16.1
15	Clemson	33.1	18.2	27.7	25.9	7.2	-9.5	15.8
16	Arkansas	38.0	25.1	27.1	24.9	13.1	-2.0	14.0
17	Central Mich.	33.3	16.6	23.6	29.3	4.0	-7.0	13.8
18	Mississippi	30.6	16.6	24.4	25.9	4.7	-7.9	13.3
19	Nevada	41.3	25.6	24.7	29.6	11.6	1.0	13.1
20	BYU	35.6	21.6	25.2	27.4	8.2	-3.7	12.9
21	Georgia Tech	36.0	23.6	24.7	24.5	11.5	-1.2	12.6
22	Houston	42.4	29.3	26.3	28.6	13.8	3.0	11.9
23	Oklahoma St.	32.9	21.3	28.0	27.6	5.3	-6.8	11.8
24	Air Force	28.3	15.3	24.0	26.4	1.8	-8.7	11.7
25	Tennessee	30.6	20.7	26.1	23.1	7.6	-5.4	11.4
26	LSU	24.8	14.7	26.3	24.0	0.9	-11.5	11.2
27	Miami (Fla.)	31.7	23.5	26.6	23.1	8.7	-3.2	10.1
28	Stanford	35.4	25.1	25.5	26.0	9.3	-0.4	10.0
29	Oregon St.	32.4	22.2	25.7	26.7	5.6	-3.5	9.6
30	Utah	29.8	19.1	24.4	27.4	2.4	-5.3	9.2
31	Rutgers	27.5	17.1	23.5	27.0	0.5	-6.4	8.6
32	Iowa	23.1	15.5	25.4	23.8	-0.7	-9.9	8.4
33	Wisconsin	31.1	23.6	25.9	24.5	6.6	-2.3	8.2
34	Auburn	34.0	27.0	26.2	24.3	9.7	0.8	7.9
35	North Carolina	24.1	15.9	25.5	26.0	-1.9	-9.6	7.9
36	Boston College	26.4	19.6	26.3	24.1	2.3	-6.6	7.8
37	Navy	29.4	21.1	25.6	26.5	2.8	-4.5	7.8
38	Arizona	31.5	24.4	26.4	25.4	6.1	-2.0	7.6
39	Northern Ill.	30.7	19.0	22.8	31.3	-0.5	-3.8	7.5
40	California	31.0	22.9	25.3	26.5	4.5	-2.3	7.4
41	Connecticut	30.0	24.2	25.8	22.6	7.4	-1.6	7.4
42	Temple	31.5	20.5	21.1	28.3	3.1	-0.6	7.4
43	Missouri	29.4	23.3	26.2	23.9	5.4	-2.9	7.2
44	Southern Miss.	34.2	24.5	23.8	29.0	5.1	0.7	7.1
45	South Fla.	28.0	19.4	24.1	27.2	0.8	-4.7	7.0
46	Notre Dame	29.4	24.2	28.4	25.6	3.7	-4.2	6.6
47	West Virginia	27.6	21.2	25.2	24.9	2.7	-4.0	6.6
48	Fresno St.	32.6	25.6	27.2	28.2	4.5	-1.6	6.5
49	USC	27.5	21.7	26.8	25.6	1.9	-5.1	6.4
50	Michigan St.	29.6	25.1	25.6	24.0	5.6	-0.6	5.3
51	Kentucky	27.5	22.2	23.9	24.4	3.1	-1.7	5.0
52	UCF	25.6	20.1	26.5	28.2	-2.6	-6.5	4.7
53	East Caro.	27.1	21.4	24.2	27.1	0.0	-2.8	4.3
54	Middle Tenn.	30.6	23.4	24.7	31.2	-0.6	-1.4	4.0
55	Florida St.	31.6	30.2	27.6	23.6	8.1	2.6	3.5
56	Kansas	28.6	27.3	27.4	23.6	5.0	-0.2	3.2
57	Georgia	27.5	26.6	26.9	22.2	5.3	-0.2	3.2
58	UCLA	22.6	20.6	27.7	25.8	-3.1	-7.1	3.0
59	Texas A&M	33.5	31.2	27.3	26.0	7.5	3.9	2.9
60	Troy	31.7	28.4	27.7	28.8	2.9	0.7	2.8
61	South Carolina	20.6	20.7	28.0	23.6	-3.0	-7.3	2.1
62	Michigan	29.5	27.5	24.7	25.2	4.3	2.8	1.8
63	Ohio	25.9	21.8	23.2	27.8	-1.9	-1.3	1.8
64	Arizona St.	22.8	21.2	26.3	26.9	-4.1	-5.1	1.3
65	Mississippi St.	24.2	26.7	30.0	22.4	1.8	-3.2	1.2
66	Louisiana Tech	26.8	26.3	28.3	27.0	-0.2	-2.0	1.2
67	Tulsa	28.9	27.1	27.1	29.3	-0.4	0.0	0.7
68	Bowling Green	26.4	26.4	25.9	24.7	1.7	0.4	0.6
69	Purdue	27.8	29.1	28.2	24.6	3.2	0.9	0.5
70	Wyoming	16.9	28.3	27.4	25.8	-8.8	0.8	0.0
71	Wake Forest	24.6	25.6	28.1	26.4	-1.8	-2.5	-0.1
72	Northwestern	25.2	23.3	22.5	26.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.3
73	Buffalo	25.5	25.4	25.0	26.1	-0.7	0.3	-0.5
74	Kansas St	23.0	23.3	24.7	25.5	-2.5	-1.4	-0.7
75	Minnesota	21.6	24.6	25.6	22.3	-0.8	-1.0	-1.4
76	NC St.	30.6	31.6	24.5	25.7	4.8	7.0	-1.6
77	Iowa St.	21.1	22.6	24.0	24.4	-3.3	-1.4	-1.7
78	Marshall	21.9	22.5	25.0	27.5	-5.5	-2.6	-1.7
79	La.-Monroe	26.2	26.4	25.1	29.6	-3.4	1.2	-2.4
80	Arkansas St.	21.8	23.3	23.9	26.8	-5.0	-0.6	-3.0
81	SMU	28.1	29.8	26.2	28.9	-0.8	3.6	-3.1
82	Virginia	19.9	24.9	27.8	24.0	-4.1	-2.9	-3.1
83	Syracuse	20.3	25.4	25.5	22.3	-2.0	-0.1	-3.5
84	Washington	24.1	31.0	29.4	23.1	1.0	1.6	-3.7
85	Duke	24.4	26.8	23.9	26.7	-2.3	3.0	-3.9
86	Baylor	21.5	27.9	27.5	22.5	-1.1	0.4	-4.0
87	Idaho	30.3	34.0	26.8	27.5	2.8	7.2	-4.1
88	Louisville	18.5	25.6	27.5	22.9	-4.4	-2.0	-4.8
89	Western Mich.	25.4	28.0	24.2	28.7	-3.3	3.8	-4.9
90	Illinois	20.2	26.0	25.7	24.4	-4.2	0.3	-5.2
91	UAB	27.8	32.2	27.4	29.1	-1.3	4.7	-5.2
92	Colorado	22.5	28.9	28.0	25.5	-3.0	0.9	-5.2
93	Utah St.	27.0	32.6	27.7	27.3	-0.3	5.0	-5.5
94	Indiana	23.5	29.5	24.3	24.1	-0.6	5.2	-5.9
95	Vanderbilt	16.3	23.3	25.4	23.5	-7.2	-2.1	-6.1
96	Kent St.	20.5	23.6	21.8	28.0	-7.5	1.9	-6.3
97	UNLV	24.6	33.2	27.1	25.2	-0.6	6.1	-7.7
98	Hawaii	23.8	28.6	25.2	30.8	-7.0	3.5	-7.7
99	Toledo	30.2	37.6	24.9	26.6	3.6	12.7	-8.3
100	Colorado St.	22.2	31.0	27.6	26.7	-4.5	3.4	-8.4
101	San Diego St.	23.3	30.7	24.2	26.1	-2.9	6.6	-8.4
102	UTEP	27.8	34.6	26.5	30.0	-2.1	8.2	-8.6
103	Army	16.5	22.4	21.6	27.8	-11.3	0.8	-9.0
104	Fla. Atlantic	27.2	36.1	24.9	25.8	1.4	11.2	-9.3
105	La.-Lafayette	21.4	28.7	23.7	28.1	-6.8	5.1	-9.6
106	Maryland	21.7	32.4	26.8	25.0	-3.2	5.5	-9.7
107	Akron	18.5	29.5	25.3	23.4	-5.0	4.1	-10.1
108	Wyoming	16.9	28.3	27.4	25.8	-8.8	0.8	-10.5
109	North Texas	26.6	36.1	24.9	27.7	-1.0	11.2	-10.8
110	Ball St.	18.9	29.2	25.7	27.7	-8.8	3.5	-11.3
111	Florida Int’l	23.1	36.0	27.7	25.7	-2.6	8.3	-11.9
112	Memphis	21.1	35.0	28.2	25.7	-4.6	6.8	-12.7
113	Miami (Ohio)	15.6	34.2	29.3	23.5	-7.9	4.9	-15.7
114	New Mexico	16.9	34.6	26.6	26.6	-9.7	7.9	-17.6
115	San Jose St.	13.2	34.9	30.4	26.8	-13.6	4.5	-19.9
116	Rice	18.6	40.4	27.1	26.5	-7.8	13.3	-21.4
117	NM St.	12.0	32.4	26.4	29.3	-17.3	5.9	-21.8
118	Eastern Mich.	16.0	39.2	27.2	24.8	-8.8	12.0	-22.0
119	Tulane	15.6	37.6	26.2	26.8	-11.2	11.5	-22.3
120	Washington St.	13.1	39.3	29.3	24.0	-10.9	10.0	-23.5

Impact Predictions – Week 12

Best week of the year for the IPS going 33-19 ATS. Let’s see if we can keep it going this week:

Prediction for			Week 12			IPS	Vegas
Air Force	22		BYU	26		-3.8	-8.0
Akron	20		Bowling Green	31		-11.2	-12.5
Arizona St.	16		UCLA	19		-3.0	-5.0
Arkansas St.	19		Middle Tenn.	25		-6.2	-11.5
Army	28		North Texas	27		0.9	-1.5
Baylor	31		Texas A&M	35		-3.9	-7.5
Boise State	46		Utah St.	18		28.0	24.5
Buffalo	28		Miami (Ohio)	19		8.4	2.0
California	27		Stanford	36		-9.0	-7.0
Central Mich.	34		Ball St.	13		21.9	17.0
Colorado	13		Oklahoma St.	37		-23.8	-14.5
Colorado St.	30		New Mexico	20		9.6	4.5
Connecticut	26		Notre Dame	29		-3.5	-5.5
Duke	20		Miami (Fla.)	37		-17.0	-17.5
Eastern Mich.	29		Toledo	42		-12.7	-20.0
Fla. Atlantic	29		Troy	40		-11.4	-17.0
Florida Int’l	2		Florida	49		-47.6	-41.0
Hawaii	31		San Jose St.	18		12.2	3.5
Iowa St.	16		Missouri	28		-12.0	-12.5
Kansas	14		Texas	44		-30.0	-26.5
Kansas St	7		Nebraska	28		-21.3	-15.5
Kent St.	16		Temple	28		-12.4	-12.5
Kentucky	25		Georgia	29		-3.2	-7.5
La.-Monroe	29		La.-Lafayette	22		7.0	2.5
Louisiana Tech	23		Fresno St.	33		-9.7	-10.5
Louisville	11		South Fla.	27		-15.5	-12.0
LSU	14		Mississippi	21		-6.1	-3.0
Maryland	24		Florida St.	41		-16.8	-17.0
Memphis	25		Houston	49		-24.7	-23.0
Minnesota	15		Iowa	26		-11.3	-9.5
Mississippi St.	25		Arkansas	37		-11.6	-11.0
Nevada	39		NM St.	12		27.6	31.5
North Carolina	15		Boston College	20		-4.8	-3.5
NC St.	20		Virginia Tech	41		-20.6	-19.5
Northern Ill.	22		Ohio	19		3.0	1.0
Ohio St.	32		Michigan	20		12.4	12.0
Oklahoma	30		Texas Tech	24		6.0	5.0
Oregon	34		Arizona	25		8.9	5.0
Oregon St.	41		Washington St.	14		26.8	31.0
Penn St.	26		Michigan St.	19		7.5	3.5
Purdue	30		Indiana	29		0.4	3.0
Rutgers	27		Syracuse	14		13.2	8.5
San Diego St.	19		Utah	35		-16.2	-17.0
SMU	21		Marshall	25		-3.9	-3.5
TCU	38		Wyoming	6		32.5	31.0
Tulane	12		UCF	34		-21.9	-19.5
Tulsa	24		Southern Miss.	32		-7.5
UAB	23		East Caro.	30		-6.3
UTEP	40		Rice	28		11.6	7.0
Vanderbilt	11		Tennessee	31		-20.1	-17.0
Virginia	9		Clemson	32		-23.1	-19.0
Wisconsin	30		Northwestern	21		9.4	6.5

Impact Rankings – Week 12

With the high scoring victories, TCU and Boise push past Florida and Bama in this weeks rankings. But, the Gators and Tide get a couple of cupcakes to reverse the trend this week.

Also interesting to see the Sooners also make a move with the 55 point MOV over the Aggies. Their defense is good enough to ranked with the big boys, but their offense is just too damn inconsistent.

		Off	Def	OppO	OppD	OImp	DImp	H2H
1	Texas	41.6	12.6	27.4	24.6	17.0	-14.8	30.4
2	TCU	39.2	12.9	25.6	25.9	13.3	-12.7	26.2
3	Boise State	43.6	16.9	24.7	29.5	14.1	-7.8	24.3
4	Florida	33.9	10.5	25.1	24.4	9.5	-14.6	23.8
5	Oklahoma	33.3	12.1	28.6	24.0	9.3	-16.5	23.5
6	Alabama	30.9	10.9	27.9	23.2	7.7	-17.0	22.4
7	Cincinnati	38.4	16.9	24.2	25.1	13.3	-7.3	21.1
8	Ohio St.	30.0	12.4	25.0	24.8	5.2	-12.6	17.7
9	Oregon	37.1	20.9	27.8	24.8	12.3	-6.9	17.7
10	Nebraska	26.2	11.0	27.5	23.5	2.7	-16.5	17.2
11	Clemson	33.0	17.9	28.6	26.1	6.9	-10.7	16.4
12	Pittsburgh	33.8	17.6	25.0	24.9	8.9	-7.4	16.3
13	Virginia Tech	29.7	16.6	26.7	20.7	9.0	-10.1	16.1
14	Penn St.	28.6	11.6	23.3	25.0	3.6	-11.7	16.1
15	Texas Tech	37.9	23.5	27.4	27.3	10.6	-3.9	14.5
16	Mississippi	31.1	15.9	24.3	26.8	4.3	-8.4	13.9
17	Air Force	28.9	13.3	23.0	27.0	1.9	-9.8	13.6
18	Arkansas	37.6	25.5	26.8	25.0	12.6	-1.3	13.0
19	Oklahoma St.	33.1	20.6	28.3	27.8	5.3	-7.7	12.8
20	Georgia Tech	36.0	23.6	24.7	24.3	11.7	-1.1	12.7
21	Central Mich.	33.1	18.0	23.8	29.0	4.1	-5.8	12.5
22	BYU	35.3	21.6	25.4	27.9	7.4	-3.8	12.4
23	Rutgers	29.1	15.6	23.9	26.9	2.2	-8.3	12.0
24	LSU	25.0	13.7	25.7	24.5	0.5	-12.0	11.9
25	Tennessee	30.6	21.2	26.7	22.8	7.8	-5.5	11.3
26	Nevada	39.1	26.2	26.0	29.4	9.7	0.2	11.2
27	Stanford	36.1	24.2	24.9	26.3	9.8	-0.7	11.2
28	Boston College	27.7	18.5	26.7	24.6	3.1	-8.2	10.2
29	Houston	41.1	30.8	26.6	27.7	13.4	4.2	9.7
30	Wisconsin	31.1	22.6	26.6	24.6	6.5	-4.0	9.5
31	Miami (Fla.)	31.5	24.2	26.7	22.7	8.9	-2.5	9.3
32	Oregon St.	31.4	23.4	27.0	25.2	6.2	-3.6	8.9
33	Northern Ill.	30.7	17.1	22.3	32.1	-1.4	-5.2	8.7
34	Iowa	24.1	16.9	26.0	23.0	1.1	-9.0	8.7
35	Auburn	34.0	27.0	26.3	23.9	10.1	0.7	8.2
36	Connecticut	29.7	23.6	25.5	22.0	7.7	-2.0	7.9
37	Arizona	30.4	22.2	25.2	26.0	4.4	-3.0	7.8
38	Navy	29.4	21.1	25.5	26.4	3.0	-4.4	7.8
39	Utah	29.0	20.3	24.4	26.6	2.4	-4.1	7.6
40	Michigan St.	31.0	23.6	25.5	25.4	5.6	-2.0	7.5
41	Notre Dame	29.3	23.3	28.4	25.7	3.6	-5.1	7.4
42	California	30.7	22.4	24.3	26.6	4.1	-1.9	7.1
43	Missouri	28.9	23.2	26.7	24.1	4.8	-3.5	7.0
44	Fresno St.	32.9	25.4	27.1	28.2	4.7	-1.7	6.9
45	South Fla.	27.3	19.1	24.8	27.4	-0.1	-5.7	6.9
46	Southern Miss.	33.2	23.5	23.1	28.7	4.5	0.4	6.9
47	USC	27.5	21.7	26.9	25.4	2.1	-5.2	6.6
48	North Carolina	23.4	16.2	25.1	26.6	-3.2	-8.9	6.4
49	West Virginia	27.6	21.2	24.5	24.8	2.8	-3.3	6.2
50	Kansas	29.4	24.9	26.3	24.3	5.1	-1.4	5.5
51	Kentucky	26.8	21.7	23.2	24.0	2.8	-1.5	4.7
52	Temple	29.9	21.2	20.8	28.9	1.0	0.4	4.7
53	Tulsa	29.7	23.3	26.0	29.7	-0.1	-2.6	4.4
54	Georgia	27.5	25.9	26.7	22.1	5.4	-0.8	3.9
55	Florida St.	31.9	30.6	28.3	23.5	8.4	2.3	3.7
56	UCLA	22.6	21.4	28.4	25.8	-3.2	-7.0	2.5
57	Arizona St.	23.8	21.0	26.6	27.3	-3.5	-5.6	2.5
58	Mississippi St.	24.5	25.2	28.5	22.3	2.2	-3.3	2.4
59	Middle Tenn.	29.8	24.3	25.3	31.6	-1.8	-1.0	2.4
60	Michigan	31.3	28.1	24.3	26.1	5.2	3.8	2.3
61	South Carolina	20.6	20.7	27.9	23.4	-2.8	-7.2	2.1
62	Louisiana Tech	26.7	25.9	27.6	26.7	0.0	-1.7	1.2
63	Troy	30.2	29.1	27.8	28.1	2.1	1.3	1.0
64	UCF	23.3	22.1	26.7	27.3	-4.0	-4.6	0.9
65	East Caro.	24.1	21.9	23.3	26.3	-2.2	-1.4	0.7
66	Ohio	24.7	20.9	22.4	28.6	-3.9	-1.5	0.7
67	NC St.	32.6	30.9	24.1	26.5	6.1	6.8	0.5
68	Texas A&M	33.0	34.0	28.1	25.4	7.6	5.9	0.4
69	Wake Forest	24.6	25.6	28.6	26.2	-1.6	-3.0	0.3
70	Wyoming	17.6	26.6	26.1	26.8	-9.2	0.5	0.0
71	Kansas St	24.8	23.9	24.7	26.8	-2.0	-0.8	-0.1
72	Purdue	26.9	29.8	28.8	23.8	3.1	1.0	-0.4
73	Bowling Green	25.4	27.0	26.2	23.9	1.5	0.8	-0.5
74	Baylor	23.3	26.9	27.1	20.9	2.4	-0.2	-0.5
75	Minnesota	23.6	25.7	25.7	22.6	0.9	0.0	-0.6
76	Arkansas St.	22.7	21.7	23.5	27.2	-4.5	-1.8	-0.8
77	Northwestern	24.5	22.6	21.8	27.2	-2.7	0.9	-0.9
78	Iowa St.	20.8	21.6	24.1	24.5	-3.7	-2.5	-0.9
79	La.-Monroe	27.1	26.9	25.8	29.2	-2.1	1.1	-1.5
80	Marshall	20.7	21.6	24.2	27.1	-6.4	-2.6	-2.4
81	Buffalo	23.8	26.2	25.3	25.7	-1.9	0.9	-2.6
82	Duke	25.2	26.1	23.2	26.8	-1.6	2.9	-2.7
83	Virginia	19.8	24.0	27.3	24.4	-4.6	-3.3	-2.8
84	SMU	27.8	29.4	26.2	29.5	-1.7	3.2	-3.3
85	Washington	24.1	31.0	29.4	22.6	1.5	1.6	-3.5
86	Kent St.	21.2	21.3	20.8	28.1	-6.9	0.5	-3.8
87	Idaho	30.3	34.0	26.6	27.3	3.0	7.4	-4.1
88	Louisville	18.1	24.7	27.2	23.1	-5.0	-2.5	-4.6
89	UAB	28.5	31.7	27.1	29.8	-1.3	4.6	-4.6
90	Utah St.	27.6	30.7	25.7	28.8	-1.2	5.0	-4.7
91	Indiana	23.7	28.7	24.1	23.5	0.2	4.7	-4.7
92	Western Mich.	25.4	28.0	24.2	28.4	-3.0	3.8	-4.7
93	Illinois	20.2	26.0	26.0	24.4	-4.2	0.0	-5.0
94	Vanderbilt	16.4	22.6	24.6	23.6	-7.3	-2.0	-5.8
95	Colorado	21.9	28.7	27.4	25.8	-3.9	1.3	-6.0
96	Syracuse	19.2	26.6	25.2	22.6	-3.4	1.4	-6.1
97	San Diego St.	24.9	30.0	23.4	26.3	-1.4	6.6	-6.6
98	Fla. Atlantic	27.9	34.9	24.7	25.6	2.2	10.2	-7.5
99	UTEP	27.7	35.1	27.2	27.8	-0.1	7.9	-7.7
100	Hawaii	24.5	30.5	26.1	29.8	-5.3	4.4	-7.9
101	UNLV	24.6	33.2	26.7	25.4	-0.8	6.5	-8.0
102	Colorado St.	21.7	31.2	28.5	25.8	-4.1	2.7	-8.2
103	Florida Int’l	25.1	33.4	26.8	27.8	-2.7	6.6	-8.8
104	Army	16.4	23.3	21.5	26.2	-9.8	1.8	-9.2
105	Wyoming	17.6	26.6	26.1	26.8	-9.2	0.5	-9.3
106	Akron	18.3	28.8	24.6	23.0	-4.7	4.2	-9.7
107	Maryland	21.3	32.7	26.6	24.1	-2.8	6.1	-10.2
108	Ball St.	20.5	28.6	24.5	29.0	-8.5	4.1	-10.4
109	Toledo	28.5	39.3	25.9	25.1	3.4	13.4	-10.4
110	La.-Lafayette	21.4	29.9	24.1	28.1	-6.7	5.8	-10.5
111	Memphis	21.8	33.0	26.1	25.5	-3.7	6.9	-10.9
112	North Texas	28.0	38.0	25.8	28.1	-0.1	12.2	-11.2
113	Miami (Ohio)	15.5	33.5	29.0	23.0	-7.5	4.4	-15.0
114	New Mexico	15.7	35.3	27.2	25.5	-9.8	8.1	-18.8
115	Tulane	17.2	36.5	25.8	27.2	-10.0	10.7	-20.0
116	NM St.	11.2	29.3	25.2	29.7	-18.5	4.1	-20.4
117	Eastern Mich.	15.5	38.4	27.0	23.4	-7.9	11.4	-21.1
118	San Jose St.	13.6	36.9	30.8	26.4	-12.8	6.0	-21.1
119	Washington St.	13.4	39.0	29.0	23.7	-10.3	10.0	-23.0
120	Rice	17.5	41.5	26.7	25.3	-7.8	14.8	-23.3

IPS Predictions – Week 11

Well, a fairly disastrous week for the IPS, going 19-28 against the spread. Still positive for the year at 241-226, but hardly anything to brag about. What can I say, college football is unpredictable.

For your further amusement, I’m now posting the weekly statistics by IPS Ranking. That way you can quickly tell who is the best team according to the IPS. In addition to the key statistics (Offensive Scoring, Defensive Scoring, Opponents Offense Scoring, Opponent Defensive Scoring), there is the calculated Impact factors:

Offensive Impact – the amount that the team is outscoring what their opponents normally give up.

Defensive Impact – the amount the team is holding opponents less than what they normally score.

H2H Impact – Essentially the Total Impact of the team which is function of all the aforementioned factors. The difference between 2 teams H2H is the difference in the predicted score (on a neutral field).So, you can see that the Horns are #1 in the IPS. And, if they played Florida, the IPS predicts that they would win by 4.3 points.

But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Here are the predictions for this week. Note that as opposed to last week where there were no outright upset predictions, the IPS is calling for several this week (Cal, Auburn, Northwestern, Ohio, Rutgers, Tulane).

Prediction for			Week 11			IPS	Vegas
Alabama	28		Mississippi St.	14		13.9	13.0
Arizona	29		California	30		-1.8	2.0
Arizona St.	15		Oregon	33		-17.7	-17.0
Arkansas St.	34		Fla. Atlantic	23		11.6	3.0
Auburn	34		Georgia	32		2.3	-4.0
Ball St.	9		Northern Ill.	34		-24.6	-17.5
Boston College	28		Virginia	16		12.0	4.5
Bowling Green	31		Miami (Ohio)	20		11.6	3.0
BYU	46		New Mexico	12		33.3	27.0
Clemson	36		NC St.	24		11.5	7.0
Colorado	19		Iowa St.	27		-7.7	-5.5
East Caro.	20		Tulsa	26		-5.6	-6.0
Florida	28		South Carolina	8		19.7	15.0
Florida St.	28		Wake Forest	29		-1.6	-4.5
Fresno St.	34		Nevada	34		-0.3	-6.5
Georgia Tech	34		Duke	27		6.4	10.5
Houston	35		UCF	26		8.8	5.5
Idaho	18		Boise State	48		-29.8	-28.0
Indiana	9		Penn St.	35		-26.7	-22.5
Iowa	8		Ohio St.	23		-14.8	-14.0
Kentucky	24		Vanderbilt	16		8.3	3.0
La.-Lafayette	18		Middle Tenn.	33		-14.4	-12.0
Louisiana Tech	7		LSU	33		-26.2	-24.0
Miami (Fla.)	22		North Carolina	21		0.8	3.5
Michigan	26		Wisconsin	35		-9.3	-9.5
Michigan St.	31		Purdue	25		5.3	0.0
Missouri	24		Kansas St	25		-1.5	-2.0
Nebraska	23		Kansas	16		7.1	4.0
NM St.	15		Hawaii	28		-12.6	-18.5
North Texas	34		Florida Int’l	37		-2.5	-2.5
Northwestern	24		Illinois	22		1.9	-4.0
Notre Dame	19		Pittsburgh	33		-14.0	-7.0
Ohio	24		Buffalo	21		2.9	-3.0
San Jose St.	21		Utah St.	37		-16.6	-10.5
South Fla.	20		Rutgers	22		-2.4	1.5
Southern Miss.	27		Marshall	20		6.7	3.0
Stanford	23		USC	31		-7.3	-11.5
Syracuse	21		Louisville	24		-3.5	-7.0
Temple	26		Akron	19		7.3	4.0
Tennessee	22		Mississippi	24		-1.7	-3.0
Texas	39		Baylor	13		25.8	24.5
Texas A&M	18		Oklahoma	37		-19.4	-18.5
Texas Tech	31		Oklahoma St.	32		-1.2	-3.5
Toledo	19		Central Mich.	44		-25.0	-16.0
Troy	22		Arkansas	43		-20.7	-14.5
Tulane	34		Rice	29		4.8	-2.0
UAB	34		Memphis	29		4.3	1.5
UCLA	32		Washington St.	11		20.8	18.0
UNLV	12		Air Force	35		-23.5	-17.0
Utah	11		TCU	32		-21.0	-17.5
UTEP	28		SMU	35		-7.2	-6.5
Virginia Tech	38		Maryland	15		22.5	17.0
Washington	22		Oregon St.	34		-12.6	-11.0
West Virginia	17		Cincinnati	39		-21.6	-9.5
Western Kentucky	20		La.-Monroe	46		-26.1	-21.0
Western Mich.	36		Eastern Mich.	22		14.3	10.0
Wyoming	20		San Diego St.	26		-5.8	-5.0